Chapter 12
... in the Long Run and the Short Run Recessions, Expansions, and Supply Shocks Because the full analysis of the aggregate demand and aggregate supply model can be complicated, we begin with a simplified case, using two assumptions: 1. The economy has not been experiencing any inflation. The price level ...
... in the Long Run and the Short Run Recessions, Expansions, and Supply Shocks Because the full analysis of the aggregate demand and aggregate supply model can be complicated, we begin with a simplified case, using two assumptions: 1. The economy has not been experiencing any inflation. The price level ...
paper - University of Oxford, Department of Economics
... Coen Teulings, the director of the CPB (the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) – the world’s first fiscal council – observed1 that there appeared to be a divergence in the views of economists compared to politicians about the role of fiscal policy following the financial crisis. One of ...
... Coen Teulings, the director of the CPB (the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) – the world’s first fiscal council – observed1 that there appeared to be a divergence in the views of economists compared to politicians about the role of fiscal policy following the financial crisis. One of ...
2017 Budget assumptions - Casa de Bolsa Banorte Ixe
... our opinion, MoF made a responsible exercise to face the macroeconomic reality in Mexico, particularly after the sharp fall in oil prices and their likely persistence at low levels, as well as the high volatility in global financial markets. Additional spending cut to comply with deficit target. The ...
... our opinion, MoF made a responsible exercise to face the macroeconomic reality in Mexico, particularly after the sharp fall in oil prices and their likely persistence at low levels, as well as the high volatility in global financial markets. Additional spending cut to comply with deficit target. The ...
Aggregate Supply-Driven Deflation and Its Implications for Macroeconomic Stability David Beckworth
... harmful is not only evident in the deflation literature, but is also borne out in practice: no central bank targets deflation while most central banks either implicitly or explicitly target some rate of inflation.1 The conventional view of deflation is often justified by noting several important cha ...
... harmful is not only evident in the deflation literature, but is also borne out in practice: no central bank targets deflation while most central banks either implicitly or explicitly target some rate of inflation.1 The conventional view of deflation is often justified by noting several important cha ...
Coordinating Business Cycles ∗ Edouard Schaal Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel
... Productivity and capital play important roles in determining how firms coordinate. An abundance of cheap capital or a high productivity fuel the growth of firms and therefore facilitate coordination on high output. Inversely, if capital is scarce and expensive or productivity is low, firms are more ...
... Productivity and capital play important roles in determining how firms coordinate. An abundance of cheap capital or a high productivity fuel the growth of firms and therefore facilitate coordination on high output. Inversely, if capital is scarce and expensive or productivity is low, firms are more ...
Chapter 1: Introduction
... output—falls by some five percent. Five percent is about four years worth of growth in output per worker. Moreover, recessions are not permanent; with rare exceptions, they are over in a year or two and are followed by periods of rapid growth that return real GDP to its pre-recession growth trend. E ...
... output—falls by some five percent. Five percent is about four years worth of growth in output per worker. Moreover, recessions are not permanent; with rare exceptions, they are over in a year or two and are followed by periods of rapid growth that return real GDP to its pre-recession growth trend. E ...
Inflation During and After the Zero Lower Bound
... Third, does the fact that both Japan and U.S. have experienced near zero interest rates for more than five years mean that these countries have entered a new, persistent regime in which inflation rates will remain below the value targeted by the central bank? Finally, we ask the questions what would ...
... Third, does the fact that both Japan and U.S. have experienced near zero interest rates for more than five years mean that these countries have entered a new, persistent regime in which inflation rates will remain below the value targeted by the central bank? Finally, we ask the questions what would ...
Public debt in 2020: A sustainability analysis for DM
... moved into unexplored territory over the past couple of years. While the GDP-weighted EM public debt stock climbed to around 44% of GDP in 2009 from just 35% in 2006, the DM debt ratio skyrocketed to around 95% of GDP from less than 80%. Today, most EMs still exhibit relatively manageable public deb ...
... moved into unexplored territory over the past couple of years. While the GDP-weighted EM public debt stock climbed to around 44% of GDP in 2009 from just 35% in 2006, the DM debt ratio skyrocketed to around 95% of GDP from less than 80%. Today, most EMs still exhibit relatively manageable public deb ...
Full Paper - Centre for Macroeconomics
... Coen Teulings, the director of the CPB (the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) – the world’s first fiscal council – observed1 that there appeared to be a divergence in the views of economists compared to politicians about the role of fiscal policy following the financial crisis. One of ...
... Coen Teulings, the director of the CPB (the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) – the world’s first fiscal council – observed1 that there appeared to be a divergence in the views of economists compared to politicians about the role of fiscal policy following the financial crisis. One of ...
Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances in Slovenia
... General government budget balance can be broken down into two elements: structural budget balance and cyclical budget balance. The structural budget balance, or cyclically adjusted budget balance, is assumed to be predominantly influenced by governmental decisions and thus reveals the actual stance ...
... General government budget balance can be broken down into two elements: structural budget balance and cyclical budget balance. The structural budget balance, or cyclically adjusted budget balance, is assumed to be predominantly influenced by governmental decisions and thus reveals the actual stance ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE END OF THE GREAT
... Depression last so long?” is perhaps the second most important topic in domestic macroeconomic history next to “Why did the Great Depression Happen?” A determination of what factor or combination of factors ended the Depression can be turned on its head to suggest which alternative policies coul ...
... Depression last so long?” is perhaps the second most important topic in domestic macroeconomic history next to “Why did the Great Depression Happen?” A determination of what factor or combination of factors ended the Depression can be turned on its head to suggest which alternative policies coul ...
What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation?
... and reabsorb the initial loss of employment. Moreover, the short-term interest rate, and especially the long-term rate, decline contributing to dampening the responses of private demand. We find that some of these channels are either stronger or weaker in certain states of the economy compared to th ...
... and reabsorb the initial loss of employment. Moreover, the short-term interest rate, and especially the long-term rate, decline contributing to dampening the responses of private demand. We find that some of these channels are either stronger or weaker in certain states of the economy compared to th ...
Demand Management Policy - Queen's Economics Department | …
... Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy The ...
... Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy The ...
Unemployment benefits extensions at the zero lower bound on
... ture presented above, the study of unemployment benefits abstracts from the liquidity trap situation and macro models assume that the recession is driven by productivity shocks. This is at odds with the data since negative supply shocks cause an inflationary pressure and can not affect the interest ...
... ture presented above, the study of unemployment benefits abstracts from the liquidity trap situation and macro models assume that the recession is driven by productivity shocks. This is at odds with the data since negative supply shocks cause an inflationary pressure and can not affect the interest ...
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?
... ployment in the 1990s was 0.73. The 1990s were also a period of quiescence for inflation: changes in annual price inflation, measured by the GDP deflator, has a relative standard deviation of 0.50. As noted by Kim, Nelson, and Piger (2001), Watson (1999), and Basistha and Startz (2001), the situatio ...
... ployment in the 1990s was 0.73. The 1990s were also a period of quiescence for inflation: changes in annual price inflation, measured by the GDP deflator, has a relative standard deviation of 0.50. As noted by Kim, Nelson, and Piger (2001), Watson (1999), and Basistha and Startz (2001), the situatio ...
The public budget balance -
... 1 Introduction and main conclusions Public sector budgets are sensitive to the cyclical situation of the economy. This has been well known for decades, and the strength of the sensitivity has been amply documented by the recent experiences of the Nordic countries. Previously, the cyclical sensitivit ...
... 1 Introduction and main conclusions Public sector budgets are sensitive to the cyclical situation of the economy. This has been well known for decades, and the strength of the sensitivity has been amply documented by the recent experiences of the Nordic countries. Previously, the cyclical sensitivit ...
The public budget balance - fiscal indicators and cyclical sensitivity
... 1 Introduction and main conclusions Public sector budgets are sensitive to the cyclical situation of the economy. This has been well known for decades, and the strength of the sensitivity has been amply documented by the recent experiences of the Nordic countries. Previously, the cyclical sensitivit ...
... 1 Introduction and main conclusions Public sector budgets are sensitive to the cyclical situation of the economy. This has been well known for decades, and the strength of the sensitivity has been amply documented by the recent experiences of the Nordic countries. Previously, the cyclical sensitivit ...
The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Employment: an
... role of composition, monetary policy, and state-dependency. Spending cuts affect employment more than tax increases, while tax effects are larger on real per capita GDP. Such a result may be explained by different reactions of monetary policy. The evidence advocates that the multiplier is state-depe ...
... role of composition, monetary policy, and state-dependency. Spending cuts affect employment more than tax increases, while tax effects are larger on real per capita GDP. Such a result may be explained by different reactions of monetary policy. The evidence advocates that the multiplier is state-depe ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES ESTIMATING REAL PRODUCTION AND EXPENDITURES ACROSS NATIONS:
... implement for a larger set of countries. ...
... implement for a larger set of countries. ...
Monetary policy trade-offs and forward guidance
... households of the conditions under which the highly stimulative stance of monetary policy will be maintained. That should reduce the risk that, as the recovery gains traction, market interest rates rise prematurely and people worry excessively about early rises in borrowing costs. By so doing, it sh ...
... households of the conditions under which the highly stimulative stance of monetary policy will be maintained. That should reduce the risk that, as the recovery gains traction, market interest rates rise prematurely and people worry excessively about early rises in borrowing costs. By so doing, it sh ...
When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?
... A classic question in macroeconomics is: what is the size of the government spending multiplier? There are very large empirical and theoretical literatures that grapple with this question. In the empirical literature authors such as Barro (1981) argue that the multiplier is around 0.8 while authors ...
... A classic question in macroeconomics is: what is the size of the government spending multiplier? There are very large empirical and theoretical literatures that grapple with this question. In the empirical literature authors such as Barro (1981) argue that the multiplier is around 0.8 while authors ...
PDF
... objective of providing a stimulus to the economy in times of recession. Furthermore, a rise in unemployment may be due to an excessive increase in real wages rather than general weakness in spending and overall economic activity. In each case, policy-makers need to take a balanced view in reconcilin ...
... objective of providing a stimulus to the economy in times of recession. Furthermore, a rise in unemployment may be due to an excessive increase in real wages rather than general weakness in spending and overall economic activity. In each case, policy-makers need to take a balanced view in reconcilin ...
Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes Since the Financial Crisis ∗ Jeffrey R. Campbell
... As such we identify forward guidance as interpreted by market participants, which may or may not be as intended by the members of the FOMC. In addition to introducing forward guidance to the monetary policy rule we make two changes to the preferences of the workhorse model. First, we include an addi ...
... As such we identify forward guidance as interpreted by market participants, which may or may not be as intended by the members of the FOMC. In addition to introducing forward guidance to the monetary policy rule we make two changes to the preferences of the workhorse model. First, we include an addi ...
Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending in Malaysia
... that are more broadly consistent with theories of investor sentiment and are better predictors of market returns. This is probably because consumer sentiment may react in a complex manner to unusual economic events, either more strongly or less than expected and may differ from investors’ sentiment ...
... that are more broadly consistent with theories of investor sentiment and are better predictors of market returns. This is probably because consumer sentiment may react in a complex manner to unusual economic events, either more strongly or less than expected and may differ from investors’ sentiment ...