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Some Monetary Facts - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Some Monetary Facts - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

... that "countries with higher money growth on average similarly have higher rates of inflation." However, we doubt that the five-year averages Dwyer and Hafer use are long enough to reflect the steady-state relationships as they claim. Studies by Barro (1990) and Poole (1994) are also consistent with ...
Chapter 26
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Research Statement Jón Steinsson March 2012 My research
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... Another source of evidence that can help distinguish between different models of the business cycle and therefore help inform debates about monetary and fiscal policy is evidence on the effects of demand shocks on output and employment. Government spending is an important source of variation in dema ...
Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way
Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way

... If the nominal interest rate is initially low, which it is when inflation and expected future inflation are low, the central bank does not have much room to lower the interest rate further. But with deflation and expectations of deflation, even a nominal interest rate of zero percent can result in a ...
Forecasting Real GDP
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...  It’s own past  captures sluggish adjustment of inflation to shocks/changes in its determinants  A constant  captures broadly the level of inflation in the absence of any other determinants: represents the inflation anchor  Reserve money growth  captures role of monetary policy (and partly dem ...
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... To develop these variabilitybased combinations, Taylor takes the view that there are other nonfundamental events, besides erratic changes in monetary policy, that cause the actual unemployment rate to deviate from the natural rate. For instance, if consumers become unduly pessimistic about their pro ...
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... premium. There are no further major redistributions of income and wealth once interest rates have adapted to the new inflation rate. The adjustment of interest rates to chronic inflation has been observed in all countries with a long history of rising prices. Because of institutional changes, some o ...
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... Inflating away some of the debt burden Figure 6 illustrates the percentage decline in the debt/GDP ratio under various inflation scenarios.2 Inflation yielded the most dramatic reduction in the debt/GDP ratio – and the real value of the debt – in the immediate post-World War II period. A 5% inflatio ...
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... when the Reserve Bank tightened in early 1987. Monetary policy remained tight through to mid-1988 at which time inflation began to fall rapidly. The MCI rose in 1989 but fell quickly between 1991 and mid1992 as demand slacked and the economy entered a recession. Monetary conditions reached their low ...
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... level) was more negative than it actually was. Over time, these errors grew in size as trend output fell further and further below the estimated level.To counteract what was thought to be a weak economy, the Fed followed an expansionary policy, contributing to the high inflation the U.S. experienced ...
Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics

... . Forexample.if GDPmeasured at currentpricesincreased from one yearto the next by 5.5%, it cannot be known Ny'any other economicvariablesare alsooften adjusted what oroportionof this increaseis due to an output for inflation.Oneof the mostimportantfor our purposes is due to inflationlt could increas ...
Decreasing Returns, Risk Premium Shocks, and Optimal Monetary
Decreasing Returns, Risk Premium Shocks, and Optimal Monetary

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Inflation



In economics, inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.When the price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money – a loss of real value in the medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy. A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index (normally the consumer price index) over time. The opposite of inflation is deflation.Inflation affects an economy in various ways, both positive and negative. Negative effects of inflation include an increase in the opportunity cost of holding money, uncertainty over future inflation which may discourage investment and savings, and if inflation were rapid enough, shortages of goods as consumers begin hoarding out of concern that prices will increase in the future.Inflation also has positive effects: Fundamentally, inflation gives everyone an incentive to spend and invest, because if they don't, their money will be worth less in the future. This increase in spending and investment can benefit the economy. However it may also lead to sub-optimal use of resources. Inflation reduces the real burden of debt, both public and private. If you have a fixed-rate mortgage on your house, your salary is likely to increase over time due to wage inflation, but your mortgage payment will stay the same. Over time, your mortgage payment will become a smaller percentage of your earnings, which means that you will have more money to spend. Inflation keeps nominal interest rates above zero, so that central banks can reduce interest rates, when necessary, to stimulate the economy. Inflation reduces unemployment to the extent that unemployment is caused by nominal wage rigidity. When demand for labor falls but nominal wages do not, as typically occurs during a recession, the supply and demand for labor cannot reach equilibrium, and unemployment results. By reducing the real value of a given nominal wage, inflation increases the demand for labor, and therefore reduces unemployment.Economists generally believe that high rates of inflation and hyperinflation are caused by an excessive growth of the money supply. However, money supply growth does not necessarily cause inflation. Some economists maintain that under the conditions of a liquidity trap, large monetary injections are like ""pushing on a string"". Views on which factors determine low to moderate rates of inflation are more varied. Low or moderate inflation may be attributed to fluctuations in real demand for goods and services, or changes in available supplies such as during scarcities. However, the consensus view is that a long sustained period of inflation is caused by money supply growing faster than the rate of economic growth.Today, most economists favor a low and steady rate of inflation. Low (as opposed to zero or negative) inflation reduces the severity of economic recessions by enabling the labor market to adjust more quickly in a downturn, and reduces the risk that a liquidity trap prevents monetary policy from stabilizing the economy. The task of keeping the rate of inflation low and stable is usually given to monetary authorities. Generally, these monetary authorities are the central banks that control monetary policy through the setting of interest rates, through open market operations, and through the setting of banking reserve requirements.
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