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Climate ethics and population policy
Climate ethics and population policy

... For comparison, total current emissions are approximately 8 billion tons per year. 5.1 billion tons per year is more than five times the annual emissions savings we would achieve in 50 years by doubling the fuel efficiency of the world auto fleet, or by halving the average kilometers traveled per ca ...
WACA-program_mauritius-conference_-sept-2016
WACA-program_mauritius-conference_-sept-2016

...  Coastal areas home to 31% of West Africa’s population (51% of its urban population including Nigeria) and generate 56% of the region’s GDP  Home to major industries, including agro-industry, fisheries, offshore petroleum exploration and production, and tourism, as well as city and seaside residen ...
Why negative CO2 emission technologies should not be classified
Why negative CO2 emission technologies should not be classified

... Known viable negative emissions technologies do not, and cannot, replace the need for early and stringent reductions of CO2 and other anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions; Regrettably, negative emission technologies need to be deployed at scale from the 2050’s following the early, and rapid deplo ...
Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries
Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries

... system, particularly in the ocean’s thermohaline circulation, also can modulate climate over decades to centuries (45, 46). The variability evident in our 400-year Arctic compilation, although an order of magnitude smaller in scale than that driven by internal climate system processes over the last ...
Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on
Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on

... the behavior of present-day megafauna in the African savanna (Owen-Smith, 1987). For example, today a large elephant in South Africa consumes 300 kg of vegetation daily (U. Schutte, personal communication, 2012). Therefore, the extinction of the Pleistocene megafauna could have allowed an additional ...
The Critical Role of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans
The Critical Role of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans

... ice contained a climate record ranging back about 110,000 years. Scientists discovered that past air temperatures over Greenland (left) repeatedly swung up and down by 10° to 20° F—within 3 to 10 years. Additional evidence has reinforced these conclusions: • Abrupt climate shifts have affected wides ...
Climate Trends in the Casco Bay Region
Climate Trends in the Casco Bay Region

... Between 1895 and 2014, average annual temperature across Maine warmed by about 3°F (Fernandez et al. 2015). Portland, during this same time period, warmed by about 4°F (National Climatic Data Center). By mid-century, models employed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict tha ...
Download paper (PDF)
Download paper (PDF)

... Yet a review of the literature shows that the bulk of the work to date has been deterministic, though there are exceptions and the trend is changing. If uncertainty is central then attitudes towards risk and the degree of risk aversion will presumably be central parameters. Institutions for risk-shi ...
AerChemMIP (Aerosols and Chemistry MIP)
AerChemMIP (Aerosols and Chemistry MIP)

... is large, the climate response differs from the globally equivalent ERF – i.e., there is some regional response to regional ERF. NTCF emissions are also responsible for driving regional and local air quality (AQ). This has led to the recognition that a combined strategy of mitigating climate change ...
A Framework for Assessing the Vulnerability of Communities in the
A Framework for Assessing the Vulnerability of Communities in the

... recognition that mitigation is unlikely to slow down anthropogenic climate change, let alone stop it. Climate models indicate that current greenhouse gas emissions commit the earth to ongoing increases in mean global temperature (McBean et al., 2001; Hansen et al., 2002). Even the most aggressive em ...
1.2 Climate Change and the Water Cycle
1.2 Climate Change and the Water Cycle

... magnitude of extreme events. This is an important question because in case of precipitation extreme events may lead to flooding or dryness, respectively. In order to enable an innovative approach to empirical-statistical climate extreme analysis, Trömel (2005; see also Trömel and Schönwiese, 2005), ...
ST 2011 02
ST 2011 02

... (Meehl et al., 2007). This suggests a future of fewer storms at mid-latitude while increasing cyclonic activity observed in the poles (Meehl et al., 2007). GCMs are run under a number of different estimates about global population, the future dependency on different fuel sources, technology, and the ...
Climate Change in Thailand_TransRe Fact Sheet No.2
Climate Change in Thailand_TransRe Fact Sheet No.2

... companies in flood-prone areas. In addition, there was a lack of investment in more water-resilient infrastructure as well as deficient forecasting and communication concerning floods and evacuation planning (Okazumi and Nakasu, 2015). Political will and increasing institutional capacity are essenti ...
Climate Change and the Future Governance of the Micro
Climate Change and the Future Governance of the Micro

... Fourth, since some of the languages of the region are spoken by very small communities, individual economic migration could well tear asunder communities, leading to loss of culture and language. Planned Resettlement: We have seen above that voluntary, unorganised migration by individuals is not a s ...
The economic impact of climate change
The economic impact of climate change

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE CLIMATE POLICY DILEMMA Robert S. Pindyck
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE CLIMATE POLICY DILEMMA Robert S. Pindyck

... uncertain, future welfare will be smaller the larger is η. Thus a higher value of η has two opposing effects on the expected benefits from an abatement policy that reduces climate-induced losses of future consumption: (1) a smaller marginal utility of consumption in the future, implying a smaller be ...
WEATHERING CHANGE
WEATHERING CHANGE

... met in Denver to talk about how changing weather patterns and climate trends are already beginning to affect their enterprises, and what the state should be doing now to protect its economy in the face of these challenges. Farmers and ranchers sat down with real estate developers, energy executives ...
Document
Document

... Water shortages may have major impacts on agricultural production and European landscapes. Many EU areas, notably in southern Member States have used irrigation for hundreds of years to ensure continuous and profitable production. In the face of climate change the sector will need to review irrigati ...
PDF
PDF

... The aim of the paper is to make decision on annual release of water for rice production dependent of current water availability considering climate change for which the present value of allocation is maximized. Climate change scenarios for Bangladesh Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countrie ...
Interactive comment on “Was the Little Ice Age more or less El Niño
Interactive comment on “Was the Little Ice Age more or less El Niño

... least squares (orthogonal regression) can mitigate that a bit, but PCR isn’t outlandish as a first pass. However, the effect of this truncation on ENSO reconstruction should be assessed. For instance, it is known that ENSO tends to be split among different modes (most commonly, EOFs 1 and 2 of month ...
PDF - sudan academy of sciences
PDF - sudan academy of sciences

... The Central Bureau of Statistics in 2008 classified the population of Sudan into rural (67%) and urban (33%) categories. The pastoral group of the population has been added to the rural category. This implies that most of Sudan’s population secures their livelihood by using natural resources. This s ...
NAACP Climate Justice Initiative Toolkit
NAACP Climate Justice Initiative Toolkit

... has changed very little. The balance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases have remained just right, but today we are having problems keeping this balance due to the burning of fossil fuels to heat our homes, run our cars, produce electricity, and manufacture all sorts of products. Scientists believe th ...
teacher`s guide - Earth Day Network
teacher`s guide - Earth Day Network

... We have seen that CO2 and temperature change together over long periods of time. What would make them change over shorter periods of time? How do the seasons change the amount of CO2 in the air? A sharp increase in atmospheric CO2 would lead to a dramatic increase in temperature. As we overwhelm the ...
9 Holocene rapid land-cover changes – evidence and theory
9 Holocene rapid land-cover changes – evidence and theory

... North Africa revealed a stability as indicated by case III in Figure 9.4 with only one, green solution IIIg. Because of the change in insolation, the dashed line P*(V,E) shifts to the left until around 6000 years BP and a situation is reached that is sketched as case II in Figure 9.4, with a desert ...
"The Ethics of Geoengineering" [Working Draft]
"The Ethics of Geoengineering" [Working Draft]

... cost-benefit analysis, many ethicists and lawmakers have moved toward a ‗precautionary‘ approach to emerging technologies that would intervene in complex living systems. The precautionary principle is increasingly being incorporated into domestic and international legal regimes as part of a general ...
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Scientific opinion on climate change



The scientific opinion on climate change is the overall judgment amongst scientists about whether global warming is happening, and if so, its causes and probable consequences. This scientific opinion is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys.The scientific consensus is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and that it is extremely likely (at least 95% probability) that humans are causing most of it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels. In addition, it is likely that some potential further greenhouse gas warming has been offset by increased aerosols.National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed current scientific opinion on global warming. These assessments are generally consistent with the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summarized:Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as evidenced by increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, the widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.Most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human activities.Benefits and costs of climate change for [human] society will vary widely by location and scale. Some of the effects in temperate and polar regions will be positive and others elsewhere will be negative. Overall, net effects are more likely to be strongly negative with larger or more rapid warming.The range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g. land-use change, pollution, fragmentation of natural systems, over-exploitation of resources).Some scientific bodies have recommended specific policies to governments and science can play a role in informing an effective response to climate change, however, policy decisions may require value judgements and so are not included in the scientific opinion.No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of these main points. The last national or international scientific body to drop dissent was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, which in 2007 updated its statement to its current non-committal position. Some other organizations, primarily those focusing on geology, also hold non-committal positions.
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