MPSAC Climate Change White Paper
... and the likely impact of changes in future emissions. Models are run on different geographical scales, from local to regional and global, and a broad range of temporal scales, from minutes to decades or longer. As the magnitude of the scales increase, so does the model complexity. The broad scales o ...
... and the likely impact of changes in future emissions. Models are run on different geographical scales, from local to regional and global, and a broad range of temporal scales, from minutes to decades or longer. As the magnitude of the scales increase, so does the model complexity. The broad scales o ...
Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s - e
... even as the climate system is still trapping excess heat of about 0.5–1.0 W m−2 (refs 15,16). These results by themselves do not provide predictive information. What would have been required to predict the hiatus in advance is the application of recently developed decadal climate prediction methodol ...
... even as the climate system is still trapping excess heat of about 0.5–1.0 W m−2 (refs 15,16). These results by themselves do not provide predictive information. What would have been required to predict the hiatus in advance is the application of recently developed decadal climate prediction methodol ...
ESM - Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
... •Aerosol concentration for the following species: SO4, black carbon, organic carbon, secondary organic aerosols, dust and sea-salt •Wavelength resolved complex refractive indices and estimates of the aerosol size distributions (geometric mean, geometric std.dev) for different relative humidity are s ...
... •Aerosol concentration for the following species: SO4, black carbon, organic carbon, secondary organic aerosols, dust and sea-salt •Wavelength resolved complex refractive indices and estimates of the aerosol size distributions (geometric mean, geometric std.dev) for different relative humidity are s ...
Centre for Earth System Dynamics
... collaboration rather than competition and focus on particular disciplines. – Earth system is broad problem. Needs multiple skills to make progress ...
... collaboration rather than competition and focus on particular disciplines. – Earth system is broad problem. Needs multiple skills to make progress ...
Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat
... proportional to global OHC. The control runs show drifts (some positive, some negative) because they were not started from a steady state and it is not computationally feasible to ‘‘spin up’’ an OAGCM for the hundreds or even thousands of years required for complete equilibrium. These drifts are gen ...
... proportional to global OHC. The control runs show drifts (some positive, some negative) because they were not started from a steady state and it is not computationally feasible to ‘‘spin up’’ an OAGCM for the hundreds or even thousands of years required for complete equilibrium. These drifts are gen ...
Southeast Asia Climate Analysis and Modelling
... Six model experiments were run over a common domain that included all Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states. Using data from six global climate models, PRECIS was used to generate high resolution (25 km) future climate change projections for Southeast Asia up to the year 2100. This i ...
... Six model experiments were run over a common domain that included all Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states. Using data from six global climate models, PRECIS was used to generate high resolution (25 km) future climate change projections for Southeast Asia up to the year 2100. This i ...
A Mathematical Model for Enzyme Kinetics
... Notice that the solution we obtained here does not satisfy the initial conditions in system (4); for, if c(0) = 0, then either s0 = s(0) = 0 or e0 = 0, by equation (5). This result would imply that either there is no substrate or no enzyme (or neither) in the beginning of the process. However, this ...
... Notice that the solution we obtained here does not satisfy the initial conditions in system (4); for, if c(0) = 0, then either s0 = s(0) = 0 or e0 = 0, by equation (5). This result would imply that either there is no substrate or no enzyme (or neither) in the beginning of the process. However, this ...
the wcrp cmip3 multimodel dataset
... consists of 17 modeling groups from 12 countries and 24 models. Figure 1a shows the current breakdown of models and experiments in the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and Fig. 1b indicates the ensemble members that were submitted by the groups for each experiment. As shown in Fig. 1, monthly means we ...
... consists of 17 modeling groups from 12 countries and 24 models. Figure 1a shows the current breakdown of models and experiments in the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and Fig. 1b indicates the ensemble members that were submitted by the groups for each experiment. As shown in Fig. 1, monthly means we ...
Simulation of Seismic Wave Propagation in 3-D models
... If we build big matrices by appending several elements, we have to build 3 matrices, each having a main direction (x,y,z), which causes a lot of cache misses due to the global access because the elements are taken in different orders, thus destroying spatial locality. ...
... If we build big matrices by appending several elements, we have to build 3 matrices, each having a main direction (x,y,z), which causes a lot of cache misses due to the global access because the elements are taken in different orders, thus destroying spatial locality. ...
introduction to mathematical modeling and ibm ilog cplex
... • But the analysis and defining/constructing modeling components of a system are the art. • For example, questions such as how much detail to include in the model or how to represent a certain phenomena (i.e., interaction between system components) are all a part of the art. ...
... • But the analysis and defining/constructing modeling components of a system are the art. • For example, questions such as how much detail to include in the model or how to represent a certain phenomena (i.e., interaction between system components) are all a part of the art. ...
Temperature changes in Poland in 21st century
... daily temperature records in database. Selected records concern the control simulation 20C3M for the twentieth century (used to correct systematic errors in statistical models), and the scenario results for the twenty-first century showing the expected climate changes in the future. Scenario result ...
... daily temperature records in database. Selected records concern the control simulation 20C3M for the twentieth century (used to correct systematic errors in statistical models), and the scenario results for the twenty-first century showing the expected climate changes in the future. Scenario result ...
Modelling the global marine carbon cycle
... University of Bergen, Norway Geophysical Institute & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Uni-Research Bjerknes AS ...
... University of Bergen, Norway Geophysical Institute & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Uni-Research Bjerknes AS ...
Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests
... Changes in local temperature and precipitation have the potential to affect African rainforests and have led to large ecological shifts on millennial timescales [1]. Projecting the impact of anthropogenic interference on the climate of West and Central Africa is therefore important: to provide infor ...
... Changes in local temperature and precipitation have the potential to affect African rainforests and have led to large ecological shifts on millennial timescales [1]. Projecting the impact of anthropogenic interference on the climate of West and Central Africa is therefore important: to provide infor ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.