Local and Global Stability of Host-Vector Disease Models
... tick or fly), and the reservoir from which the vector obtains the infection. Control strategies for these diseases should be informed by an understanding of the complex dynamics of vector-host interactions and the ways in which the environments of both the vector and host intersect to produce human ...
... tick or fly), and the reservoir from which the vector obtains the infection. Control strategies for these diseases should be informed by an understanding of the complex dynamics of vector-host interactions and the ways in which the environments of both the vector and host intersect to produce human ...
Pulse response functions are cost-e cient tools to model the link
... to estimate the abatement and mitigation cost of climate change. Such diculties may be overcome if the information contained in complex models is extracted in form of their pulse response function (Green's function) (e.g., Hasselmann et al., 1996; Joos et al., 1996; Siegenthaler and Oeschger, 1978) ...
... to estimate the abatement and mitigation cost of climate change. Such diculties may be overcome if the information contained in complex models is extracted in form of their pulse response function (Green's function) (e.g., Hasselmann et al., 1996; Joos et al., 1996; Siegenthaler and Oeschger, 1978) ...
Climate Variability and Weather
... also caused a record heatwave, drought and wildfires in Russia.7 The North Atlantic Oscillation ENSO mainly causes climate to vary in the tropics; it has only a small effect on the UK, which is more affected by another pattern of internal climate variability known as the North Atlantic Oscillation ( ...
... also caused a record heatwave, drought and wildfires in Russia.7 The North Atlantic Oscillation ENSO mainly causes climate to vary in the tropics; it has only a small effect on the UK, which is more affected by another pattern of internal climate variability known as the North Atlantic Oscillation ( ...
Time-Dependent Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change
... intended to represent the sub-grid scale processes These currents and mixing coefficients may be obtained from a GCM simulating the present climate and ocean circulation, including the buoyancy field, in a dynamically consistent manner Using appropriate sources, the distributions ol transient and ot ...
... intended to represent the sub-grid scale processes These currents and mixing coefficients may be obtained from a GCM simulating the present climate and ocean circulation, including the buoyancy field, in a dynamically consistent manner Using appropriate sources, the distributions ol transient and ot ...
Forest dynamics: a broad view of the evolution of the topic
... approach ecological theory and practical forestry, because there is a common interest in processes at individual, plot or population levels. Prediction is strictly impossible, but quantitative models can be built to explore possible developments under different scenarios and to generate projections. ...
... approach ecological theory and practical forestry, because there is a common interest in processes at individual, plot or population levels. Prediction is strictly impossible, but quantitative models can be built to explore possible developments under different scenarios and to generate projections. ...
Met Office science strategy 2010–2015
... even a forecast for a few hours ahead will need to be probabilistic in formulation. For forecast lead-times beyond 2–3 days, the skill of the global forecast will be critical in setting the context for hazardous weather. This will require continued investment in global data assimilation research to ...
... even a forecast for a few hours ahead will need to be probabilistic in formulation. For forecast lead-times beyond 2–3 days, the skill of the global forecast will be critical in setting the context for hazardous weather. This will require continued investment in global data assimilation research to ...
Possible regional consequences of global climate changes
... global climatic models, natural and anthropogenic impacts, parameters of extreme regimes. ...
... global climatic models, natural and anthropogenic impacts, parameters of extreme regimes. ...
Statistical Learning for Resting-State fMRI: Successes and Challenges
... of priors, and they can shape the output of the methods. These priors must not only be consistent with current neuroscientific knowledge but also robust to the confounding structured noise of fMRI. Performing principled model selection to pick the best performing prior is still an open question, in ...
... of priors, and they can shape the output of the methods. These priors must not only be consistent with current neuroscientific knowledge but also robust to the confounding structured noise of fMRI. Performing principled model selection to pick the best performing prior is still an open question, in ...
Eyring_CCMValOverview_SPARCSSG_091028
... natural factors, such as the seasonal and the 11-year cycles in solar irradiance, the QBO, ENSO, variations in transport associated with large-scale circulations (i.e., Brewer Dobson circulation) and dynamical variability associated with the annular modes. Aerosols from volcanic eruptions can also a ...
... natural factors, such as the seasonal and the 11-year cycles in solar irradiance, the QBO, ENSO, variations in transport associated with large-scale circulations (i.e., Brewer Dobson circulation) and dynamical variability associated with the annular modes. Aerosols from volcanic eruptions can also a ...
6 Numerical Solution of Parabolic Equations
... stable, if for any fixed stopping time T there exists a constant KT > 0 such that kB(∆t)n k ≤ KT , ∀∆t > 0 and n ∈ N, n∆t ≤ T. ...
... stable, if for any fixed stopping time T there exists a constant KT > 0 such that kB(∆t)n k ≤ KT , ∀∆t > 0 and n ∈ N, n∆t ≤ T. ...
Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change
... As the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen and concerns about severe weather events increase, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate ...
... As the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen and concerns about severe weather events increase, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate ...
Future climate in the Pacific Northwest
... precipitation values at all the Northwest grid points. The reason for such averaging is that variations in model climate on scales smaller than a few grid cells is not meaningful. Put another way, the models represent the variations of climate that would occur on a smooth planet with similar land-se ...
... precipitation values at all the Northwest grid points. The reason for such averaging is that variations in model climate on scales smaller than a few grid cells is not meaningful. Put another way, the models represent the variations of climate that would occur on a smooth planet with similar land-se ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.