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Probability Theory
Probability Theory

... Then one easily sees that  exists in any row so that the event (1.4) takes place, which was to be proved. Is this proof rigorous? It may leave impression of a rather empirical argument than a mathematical proof. The point is that we have used in this argument the existence of events with certain pr ...
Lecture 5
Lecture 5

View PDF - CiteSeerX
View PDF - CiteSeerX

Copyright © by SIAM. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is
Copyright © by SIAM. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is

... V (which we cannot), ensuring that internal V m∗ messages and external V responses are both “good,” then T need only perform polynomially many rewinds in order for S to successfully convince V m∗ . Next, to remove the assumption of rewinding V , we use a probabilistic lemma due to Raz [36], original ...
Misspecified Recovery Jaroslav Boroviˇcka Lars Peter Hansen Jos´e A. Scheinkman
Misspecified Recovery Jaroslav Boroviˇcka Lars Peter Hansen Jos´e A. Scheinkman

... Arrow, that asset prices reflect a combination of investors’ risk aversion and the probability distributions used to assess risk. In dynamic models, investors’ risk aversion is expressed by stochastic discount factors that include compensations for risk exposures. In this paper, we ask what can be l ...
Multidimensional hitting time results for Brownian bridges with
Multidimensional hitting time results for Brownian bridges with

... result generalizes this one-dimensional, two-sided boundary result to the asymmetric case. Scheike (1992) calculates the probability that the standard Brownian bridge crosses a linear boundary, as well as other Brownian motion crossing results. He uses the time inversion property of Brownian motion ...
The Probability of Inconsistencies in Complex Collective Decisions
The Probability of Inconsistencies in Complex Collective Decisions

John Tabak-Probability and Statistics_ The Science of Uncertainty
John Tabak-Probability and Statistics_ The Science of Uncertainty

... probability of each event on the list, but by itself accomplishing that goal is often not sufficient for many practical problems. It is often important to determine the factors on which our probability estimates depend because probabilities change. They reflect what we know. For example, what are th ...
Dilation for Sets of Probabilities
Dilation for Sets of Probabilities

... P(A) are called the upper and lower probability of A, respectively. Upper and lower probabilities have become increasingly more common for several reasons. First, they provide a rigorous mathematical framework for studying sensitivity and robustness in classical and Bayesian inference [Berger (1984, ...
Dissertations on Probability in Paris in the 1930s
Dissertations on Probability in Paris in the 1930s

Dennis Volpano Georey Smith Computer Science Department School of Computer Science
Dennis Volpano Georey Smith Computer Science Department School of Computer Science

... But suppose the two threads are scheduled by ipping a coin. Then the threads run at roughly the same rate and the value of x ends up being copied into y with high probability. So there is probabilistic interference when thread scheduling obeys a probability distribution, even when the program is we ...
Chapter 5 Probability Representations
Chapter 5 Probability Representations

What has been will be again : A Machine Learning Approach to the Analysis of Natural Language
What has been will be again : A Machine Learning Approach to the Analysis of Natural Language

... prede ned rules for each possible input sequence that represent one of the possible forms of human communication. This approach is also referred to as the knowledge-based or knowledge-engineering approach. There are situations where a xed prescribed set of rules suce to perform a limited task. For ...
Conditional Prediction without a Coarsening at Random condition
Conditional Prediction without a Coarsening at Random condition

A Tricentenary history of the Law of Large Numbers
A Tricentenary history of the Law of Large Numbers

john maynard keynes and ludwig von mises on probability
john maynard keynes and ludwig von mises on probability

Chapter 6
Chapter 6

...  Use when we have acquired some data set, then want to ask questions concerning the probability of certain specific data values (e.g., do certain values seem extreme?).  In this case, the distribution associated with H0 is described by X and S2 because the data points reflect a continuous variable ...
PDF
PDF

... is determined exactly. The analytical computation of and these bounds has been partially addressed in [26], where the authors use Fenchel duality [17] to provide equivalent bounds for a binary DMS and an arbitrary DMC under the Hamming distortion measure. Since many real-world communication systems ...
Smallest - Research portal
Smallest - Research portal

... the seminal paper [40], is to consider intervals with two order statistics as endpoints. It is important to note that it is decided beforehand which order statistics to take. In the spirit of the shorth (see, e.g., [28], [18]), we propose a new approach to nonparametric tolerance intervals by taking ...
[PDF]
[PDF]

... the mean weight of within cluster edges be greater than zero. In addition, it requires that all weights are bounded2 , i.e. ∀i, j : a ≤ Wij ≤ b. This class of distributions PS ∗ (W ) can be used to model a variety of clustering applications. Here are three examples: Pair-Wise Classification This exa ...
Interactive Privacy via the Median Mechanism
Interactive Privacy via the Median Mechanism

Algorithms and Applications for the Same
Algorithms and Applications for the Same

A Poisoned Dart for Conditionals
A Poisoned Dart for Conditionals

... conditional. Choose one of these conditionals—say, [½, 1]  2/3. This is true at a world w just in case the closest (overall most similar) world to w in which the dart lands in [½, 1] is a world in which it lands exactly on 2/3. In which worlds is this the case? Consider first the worlds in which th ...
Random Graph Models with Clustering
Random Graph Models with Clustering

as a PDF
as a PDF

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Probability box



A probability box (or p-box) is a characterization of an uncertain number consisting of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that is often used in risk analysis or quantitative uncertainty modeling where numerical calculations must be performed. Probability bounds analysis is used to make arithmetic and logical calculations with p-boxes.An example p-box is shown in the figure at right for an uncertain number x consisting of a left (upper) bound and a right (lower) bound on the probability distribution for x. The bounds are coincident for values of x below 0 and above 24. The bounds may have almost any shapes, including step functions, so long as they are monotonically increasing and do not cross each other. A p-box is used to express simultaneously incertitude (epistemic uncertainty), which is represented by the breadth between the left and right edges of the p-box, and variability (aleatory uncertainty), which is represented by the overall slant of the p-box.
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