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Probabilistic thinking and probability literacy in the context of risk
Probabilistic thinking and probability literacy in the context of risk

Convergence of Random Variables
Convergence of Random Variables

... As seen from the above definition, this notion concerns itself with the convergence of a sequence of probabilities! At the first glance, it may seem that the notions of almost sure convergence and convergence in probability are the same. But the two definitions actually tell very different stories! ...
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... Returning to our doctor-patient example, there now arises the question: For a doctor not knowing the patient’s preference between the two kinds of uncertainty resolution, how should she send to him a piece of information on his health condition such that both of their utility levels are maximized in ...
Notes #1 - Department of Computer Science
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... Now define a distinguishing circuit Dn for G as follows: On input a1 , a2 , · · · , al(n) , Dn computes An (a1 , a2 , · · · , ai−1 ), and accepts if this equals ai . Then p(n) = the probability that Dn accepts G(s) for random s = pred(n), and r(n) = the probability that Dn accepts a random string = ...
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Corpus-based estimates of word association predict - clic

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Training Products of Experts by Minimizing Contrastive Divergence

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probability - Jobpulp.com

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DOTSE Report 169 NR 1345 ISSN 1174

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REVIEW ESSAY: Probability in Artificial Intelligence

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PDF only

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Combinatorial Probability

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... the real parameters, so that the performance of the solution under nominal parameters may provide important information for predicting the performance under the true parameters. Finally, there is a certain tradeoff relationship between the worst-case performance and the nominal performance, that is ...
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Universality classes for extreme-value statistics

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Probability box



A probability box (or p-box) is a characterization of an uncertain number consisting of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that is often used in risk analysis or quantitative uncertainty modeling where numerical calculations must be performed. Probability bounds analysis is used to make arithmetic and logical calculations with p-boxes.An example p-box is shown in the figure at right for an uncertain number x consisting of a left (upper) bound and a right (lower) bound on the probability distribution for x. The bounds are coincident for values of x below 0 and above 24. The bounds may have almost any shapes, including step functions, so long as they are monotonically increasing and do not cross each other. A p-box is used to express simultaneously incertitude (epistemic uncertainty), which is represented by the breadth between the left and right edges of the p-box, and variability (aleatory uncertainty), which is represented by the overall slant of the p-box.
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