Is globalization reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?
... 2010). On the finance side, with long-term bond yields being increasingly priced in international markets, their responsiveness to short-term policy rates in control of monetary authorities may decline. This can be particularly the case in an environment of abundance of liquidity, and long term-inte ...
... 2010). On the finance side, with long-term bond yields being increasingly priced in international markets, their responsiveness to short-term policy rates in control of monetary authorities may decline. This can be particularly the case in an environment of abundance of liquidity, and long term-inte ...
Capture the Rebound Potential - CSOP Asset Management Limited
... the index methodology adopted by the ETFs. Therefore it is crucial for investors to choose the right index that could potentially bring better return. Currently, a majority of existing futures-based oil ETFs invest into the nearest-month futures contract and roll to the next-month contract on a mont ...
... the index methodology adopted by the ETFs. Therefore it is crucial for investors to choose the right index that could potentially bring better return. Currently, a majority of existing futures-based oil ETFs invest into the nearest-month futures contract and roll to the next-month contract on a mont ...
How should Russia allocate its oil revenues, when it faces sanctions?
... immigration inflow the country manages to substitute this decline of population from natural reasons, by increase in number of immigrated workers. Due to gaps in fertility rate in 1990s there are at least two demographical shocks that are expected to happen by 2050. In 2014 GDP per capita was 14,591 ...
... immigration inflow the country manages to substitute this decline of population from natural reasons, by increase in number of immigrated workers. Due to gaps in fertility rate in 1990s there are at least two demographical shocks that are expected to happen by 2050. In 2014 GDP per capita was 14,591 ...
Aff Oil DA Classic - Open Evidence Archive
... not a temporary bubble, but the most important revolution in the oil sector in decades,” he says, while pointing out it will probably trigger similar exploration and development worldwide. His estimate is that the United States could still increase oil production by 3.5-million barrels per day and b ...
... not a temporary bubble, but the most important revolution in the oil sector in decades,” he says, while pointing out it will probably trigger similar exploration and development worldwide. His estimate is that the United States could still increase oil production by 3.5-million barrels per day and b ...
Price
... in several countries, coup in Saudi-Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz becomes an area of war, considerable destruction of oil installations, terror attacks around the world. Oil prices unstable around 35-60 $/bbl, hikes up to 50-90 $/bbl. ...
... in several countries, coup in Saudi-Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz becomes an area of war, considerable destruction of oil installations, terror attacks around the world. Oil prices unstable around 35-60 $/bbl, hikes up to 50-90 $/bbl. ...
Impact of low oil prices on oil exporting countries
... drop in oil prices. Some authors argue that since mid-2014 economic growth has been weaker than expected in Europe and Asia, which, combined with policy measures aiming at spurring energy efficiency, led to lower-than-expected demand having pushed down the price of oil2. 3. Crude oil inventories: th ...
... drop in oil prices. Some authors argue that since mid-2014 economic growth has been weaker than expected in Europe and Asia, which, combined with policy measures aiming at spurring energy efficiency, led to lower-than-expected demand having pushed down the price of oil2. 3. Crude oil inventories: th ...
Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC
... Against this background, global growth is estimated at 3.1 percent this year, its slowest pace since 2009. This is the same growth as projected at the time of last year’s GCC Ministerial meeting, and lower than the 3.2 percent global GDP growth in 2015. Growth prospects across the main countries and ...
... Against this background, global growth is estimated at 3.1 percent this year, its slowest pace since 2009. This is the same growth as projected at the time of last year’s GCC Ministerial meeting, and lower than the 3.2 percent global GDP growth in 2015. Growth prospects across the main countries and ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES EQUILIBRIUM COMMODITY PRICES WITH
... generates an endogenous convenience yield which has two components, an absolutely continuous component in the no-investment region and a singular component at the investment boundary. This convenience yield reflects the benefit to smoothing the flow of oil used in production. It is decreasing in the ...
... generates an endogenous convenience yield which has two components, an absolutely continuous component in the no-investment region and a singular component at the investment boundary. This convenience yield reflects the benefit to smoothing the flow of oil used in production. It is decreasing in the ...
“Carry Trade” Model of Commodity Prices
... both lower demand and higher supply contribute to a fall in oil prices. The same mechanisms apply to decisions about extracting minerals, logging forests, harvesting crops, etc. ...
... both lower demand and higher supply contribute to a fall in oil prices. The same mechanisms apply to decisions about extracting minerals, logging forests, harvesting crops, etc. ...
NEUTRAL - Maybank Kim Eng
... latter 2015, but the El Nino damage has been done with the market expecting FFB yield to be sharply lower YoY in 2016, especially for areas badly affected by the Aug-Oct 2015 dry spell. This situational play should benefit CPO price in general as it typically more than compensates for the decline in ...
... latter 2015, but the El Nino damage has been done with the market expecting FFB yield to be sharply lower YoY in 2016, especially for areas badly affected by the Aug-Oct 2015 dry spell. This situational play should benefit CPO price in general as it typically more than compensates for the decline in ...
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike:
... In recent years, our understanding of the nature of energy price shocks and their effects on the economy has evolved dramatically. Only a few years ago, the prevailing view in the literature was that at least the major crude oil prices increases were exogenous with respect to the OECD economies and ...
... In recent years, our understanding of the nature of energy price shocks and their effects on the economy has evolved dramatically. Only a few years ago, the prevailing view in the literature was that at least the major crude oil prices increases were exogenous with respect to the OECD economies and ...
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2005/eng/meca0905.pdf
... growth for the second year in a row. Robust global growth, high commodity prices, low international interest rates, and generally accommodative monetary and fiscal policies underpinned average real GDP growth of 5.9 percent in 2004, somewhat lower than in 2003 but significantly higher than the 3.9 p ...
... growth for the second year in a row. Robust global growth, high commodity prices, low international interest rates, and generally accommodative monetary and fiscal policies underpinned average real GDP growth of 5.9 percent in 2004, somewhat lower than in 2003 but significantly higher than the 3.9 p ...
Oil Scarcity, Growth and Global Imbalances
... of a specified level of demand. If supply cannot meet demand at the prevailing price, prices must rise to encourage more supply and to ration demand. In this sense, oil scarcity is reflected in the market price. The price should reflect the opportunity cost of bringing an additional barrel of oil to ma ...
... of a specified level of demand. If supply cannot meet demand at the prevailing price, prices must rise to encourage more supply and to ration demand. In this sense, oil scarcity is reflected in the market price. The price should reflect the opportunity cost of bringing an additional barrel of oil to ma ...
What Determines Investment in the Oil Sector?
... Pindyck (1994) and Abel and Eberly (2004), is that when there is higher price volatility (as in these past years), then under the assumptions of uncertainty and sunk costs, investment would tend to be lower. Others such as Casassus, Collin_Dufresne and Routledge (2005) develop a model in which inves ...
... Pindyck (1994) and Abel and Eberly (2004), is that when there is higher price volatility (as in these past years), then under the assumptions of uncertainty and sunk costs, investment would tend to be lower. Others such as Casassus, Collin_Dufresne and Routledge (2005) develop a model in which inves ...
Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for
... the literature, namely, the asymmetric, scaled and net specifications. The main findings of this paper may be summarised as follows. As a first step, our use of Granger causality-type tests allows us to conclude that the interaction between oil prices and macroeconomic variables is found to be signi ...
... the literature, namely, the asymmetric, scaled and net specifications. The main findings of this paper may be summarised as follows. As a first step, our use of Granger causality-type tests allows us to conclude that the interaction between oil prices and macroeconomic variables is found to be signi ...
Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market- Based
... in subsequent sections. Our study is also related to the ongoing debate about how the real effects of oil-price shocks have changed over time. For instance, VAR studies, such as those of Hooker (1996) and Blanchard and Galí (2009), have usually found a much weaker and statistically insignificant rel ...
... in subsequent sections. Our study is also related to the ongoing debate about how the real effects of oil-price shocks have changed over time. For instance, VAR studies, such as those of Hooker (1996) and Blanchard and Galí (2009), have usually found a much weaker and statistically insignificant rel ...
Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences
... Commission were charged with regulating the oil industry. As discussed in Hamilton (1983), they did so by forecasting U.S. oil consumption and setting production targets accordingly, thus ensuring stable oil prices as a rule. Regulators were unable or unwilling to accommodate occasional unanticipate ...
... Commission were charged with regulating the oil industry. As discussed in Hamilton (1983), they did so by forecasting U.S. oil consumption and setting production targets accordingly, thus ensuring stable oil prices as a rule. Regulators were unable or unwilling to accommodate occasional unanticipate ...
Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still
... Middle East, the price of which could not be regulated domestically (see Yergin 1992). When the price of imported crude oil quadrupled in 1973/74, imposing lower ceilings on the price of domestically produced crude oil soon proved impractical. The WTI price rose from $4.31 in September 1973 to $10.1 ...
... Middle East, the price of which could not be regulated domestically (see Yergin 1992). When the price of imported crude oil quadrupled in 1973/74, imposing lower ceilings on the price of domestically produced crude oil soon proved impractical. The WTI price rose from $4.31 in September 1973 to $10.1 ...
Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets
... Ortiz (2005) for two reasons. First, these models are grounded in the fundamental relationship between the two variables. Second, such simple models provide a good framework for examining popular political perceptions on the crude oil market. In this paper, I reproduce the good in-sample fit of the ...
... Ortiz (2005) for two reasons. First, these models are grounded in the fundamental relationship between the two variables. Second, such simple models provide a good framework for examining popular political perceptions on the crude oil market. In this paper, I reproduce the good in-sample fit of the ...
Do increases in oil prices precede US recessions?
... caused by increasing oil prices such as Bohi (1989), Bernanke et al (1997), Hamilton and Herrera (2004). ...
... caused by increasing oil prices such as Bohi (1989), Bernanke et al (1997), Hamilton and Herrera (2004). ...
mmi09 Peersman 9031972 en
... depending on the source of oil price shift. Production disruptions in oil-producing countries can be considered as unfavourable oil supply shocks and hence, result in lower oil production, higher oil prices and a global fall of income and economic activity. On the other hand, an oil price increase d ...
... depending on the source of oil price shift. Production disruptions in oil-producing countries can be considered as unfavourable oil supply shocks and hence, result in lower oil production, higher oil prices and a global fall of income and economic activity. On the other hand, an oil price increase d ...
The impact of Crude oilprice volatility on selected Asian emerging economies
... to remain unemployed while waiting for the conditions to improve in their own sector rather than moving to other positively affected sectors. Lilien(1982) demonstrates further by showing that aggregate unemployment rises when relative price shocks become more variable. 3. Oil Price Volatility and th ...
... to remain unemployed while waiting for the conditions to improve in their own sector rather than moving to other positively affected sectors. Lilien(1982) demonstrates further by showing that aggregate unemployment rises when relative price shocks become more variable. 3. Oil Price Volatility and th ...
Interim Report on Crude Oil
... side, the production of oil has responded sluggishly, compounded by production shortfalls associated with geopolitical unrest in countries with large oil reserves. As it is very difficult to rely on substitutes for oil in the short term, very large price increases have occurred as the market balance ...
... side, the production of oil has responded sluggishly, compounded by production shortfalls associated with geopolitical unrest in countries with large oil reserves. As it is very difficult to rely on substitutes for oil in the short term, very large price increases have occurred as the market balance ...
Can Oil-Rich Countries Encourage Entrepreneurship?
... accountability of the government to the people is undermined in rentier states (Mahdavy, 1970 and Bornhorst et al., 2009). Others show that the resources are only a curse for economic growth if a country has a high degree of ethnical factionalism (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005 and Hodler, 2006) ...
... accountability of the government to the people is undermined in rentier states (Mahdavy, 1970 and Bornhorst et al., 2009). Others show that the resources are only a curse for economic growth if a country has a high degree of ethnical factionalism (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005 and Hodler, 2006) ...
The political economy of OPEC - Department of Agricultural
... Gal Hochman†and David Zilberman‡ November 2010 ...
... Gal Hochman†and David Zilberman‡ November 2010 ...
1973 oil crisis
The 1973 oil crisis began in October 1973 when the members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC, consisting of the Arab members of the OPEC plus Egypt and Syria) proclaimed an oil embargo. By the end of the embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had risen from $3 per barrel to nearly $12. The oil crisis, or ""shock"", had many short-term and long-term effects on global politics and the global economy. It was later called the ""first oil shock"", followed by the 1979 oil crisis, termed the ""second oil shock.""