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Reduction(6).pdf
Reduction(6).pdf

... optimal decision does not provide any quick and easy solutions to specific epistemological questions about which rule of inference is optimal with respect to a specific kind of payoff. In our view, different things may be said in different cases. In some cases, membership of S may be determined by a ...
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... An event is considered “significant” if its probability is less than or equal to 0.05. Muhammad Ali’s professional boxing record included 56 wins and 5 losses. If one match is selected at random, would it be considered significant if the match selected were a loss? ...
chapter_6_powerpoint
chapter_6_powerpoint

... An event is considered “significant” if its probability is less than or equal to 0.05. Muhammad Ali’s professional boxing record included 56 wins and 5 losses. If one match is selected at random, would it be considered significant if the match selected were a loss? ...
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Reduction(5).pdf

... optimal decision does not provide any quick and easy solutions to specific epistemological questions about which rule of inference is optimal with respect to a specific kind of payoff. In our view, different things may be said in different cases. In some cases, membership of S may be determined by a ...
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... create a balanced sequence.  The outcome TTTHHH in tossing six coins looks unusual because of the runs of 3 straight tails and 3 straight heads. Runs seem “not random” to our intuition but are quite common. Here’s a more striking example than tossing coins. Ex: Is there such a thing as a “hot hand” ...
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HFES2016-1 Foundations of Risk and Risk Management

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Ars Conjectandi



Ars Conjectandi (Latin for The Art of Conjecturing) is a book on combinatorics and mathematical probability written by Jakob Bernoulli and published in 1713, eight years after his death, by his nephew, Niklaus Bernoulli. The seminal work consolidated, apart from many combinatorial topics, many central ideas in probability theory, such as the very first version of the law of large numbers: indeed, it is widely regarded as the founding work of that subject. It also addressed problems that today are classified in the twelvefold way, and added to the subjects; consequently, it has been dubbed an important historical landmark in not only probability but all combinatorics by a plethora of mathematical historians. The importance of this early work had a large impact on both contemporary and later mathematicians; for example, Abraham de Moivre.Bernoulli wrote the text between 1684 and 1689, including the work of mathematicians such as Christiaan Huygens, Gerolamo Cardano, Pierre de Fermat, and Blaise Pascal. He incorporated fundamental combinatorial topics such as his theory of permutations and combinations—the aforementioned problems from the twelvefold way—as well as those more distantly connected to the burgeoning subject: the derivation and properties of the eponymous Bernoulli numbers, for instance. Core topics from probability, such as expected value, were also a significant portion of this important work.
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