Download Steve Goreham – Energy, Climate Change and Public Policy

Steve Goreham – Energy, Climate Change and Public Policy:
I.
Introduction

Although wages and commodity prices increased since 1910, electricity remains at 11¢/kWh
now – about the same as back then

Since 1910 we experienced a golden age of low cost energy which drove global prosperity
worldwide – we are in an age of electricity and growth will continue here and worldwide out to
2040 (US has a lower growth rate than world).
II.
Climatism

Energy use has come to be viewed as “bad” due to criticisms by Amory Lovins, Al Gore, Gar
Smith, Paul Ehrlich, Steven Chu and David Goodstein – issues of climate and resource adequacy
(running out); even utilities scold customers for inefficiency compared to neighbors and urge
them to beat the “energy bandit” (Commonwealth Ed)

Alarmists such as Al Gore, Bill Richardson and Chris Christie convinced the public that humans
are causing dangerous global warming, but empirical evidence is lacking that greenhouse gases
drive warming; Goreham calls the alarmism “climatism”.

Some of the illustrations to illustrate the minor role of man-made CO2: temperature records for
Chicago 1872-2008; CO2 being a trace gas in the complex climate system (.04% of atmosphere;
human cause is less than 25% of that; water vapor is most abundant greenhouse gas (GHG); all
GHGs are 1-2% of atmosphere; humans contribute 1% to overall greenhouse effect; actual
measured temperature change since early 1990s is far below numerous IPCC model predictions

Discussion of past climate variations before the industrial age: medieval warm period (900-1300
AD), little ice age (1300-1850 AD) and earlier warm periods (Holocene and Roman optimums) –
climate change due to natural cycles driven by the sun with GHGs playing a minor role

Claims of increased extreme weather due to climate change are not supported by frequency and
intensity records for tropical storms

US energy usage grew 21% since 1980 – at a time when 6 major pollutants declined 57% (CO,
NOx, SOx, lead, ozone, particulates)

CO2 is not a “pollutant” like the other gases – it is exhaled by humans, supports plant growth,
and is essential to oxygen production through photosynthesis
III.

Abundant Resources
Earth is not running out of oil and gas despite “peak oil” concerns of some – the shale revolution
occurred due to innovation and productivity in “manufacturing” oil and gas in shale basins
IV.
Policy Measures

Worldwide public policy has been to adopt climate legislation

US electricity markets are distorted by wind subsidies allowing bids at negative prices, putting
pressure on base load nuclear (Exelon)

EPA’s clean power plan to raise prices and shrink grid margin – but EPA concedes it won’t affect
climate (by itself)

Possible favorable reactions: green energy socks decline, failing carbon trading markets, drop in
renewable growth, states (WV, NC, OH, KN) pushing back on RPS laws

Policy recommendations: end climatism, challenge the alleged consensus, encourage debate,
let renewables compete – oppose mandates, promoting renewables, carbon pricing, emissions
regulation, feed in tariffs, renewable subsidies and mandates, demand control, transportation
biofuels

European wholesale prices for electricity are now determined by weather (sun, wind) not
market demand

Germany – solar capacity factor 9.5% in 2013 – 6% of electric production with $400B subsidy
support

Denmark – 5,000 wind towers cover the nation with average output of 1.2 GW – equivalent to 1
large conventional plant with small footprint

England – conversion of ½ Drax coal plant to wood imported from US cost $1.1B and doubled
electricity costs

Spain – solar subsidies led to fraudulent reporting of night-time conventional generation as solar
in 2009-10

European results, generally: R prices 20-30¢/kWh; traditional utilities losing money and
reluctant to invest; industrial costs rising (France, Germany) compared to US and China, shale
gas energy giving US industrial advantage in plastics; result is slashing renewable subsidies,
bankruptcies, layoffs and cancelled projects

The European experience is starting to happen in the US; e.g. California Valley Solar Ranch
electricity cost 15-18¢/kWh

Combined wind and fossil power production leads to more CO2 and pollutants as fossil units are
forced to in efficient “stop and go” mode of operation