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FACT OR MYTH?
Laura Blackburn, LWV-Houston Area
MANMADE?
Or
NATURAL CAUSES
Or
BOTH ????
RADIATION:
•COMES FROM SUN AS uV
•(HIGH E)
Infrared
(uV)
CARBON DIOXIDE:
•RELEASES INFRARED IN ALL
DIRECTIONS
TYPES & DISTRIBUTION OF GREENHOUSE GASES
(Chlorofluorohydrocarbons)
C
(Methane)
TotalCO
CO22==76.7%
76.7%
Total
Reference: IPCC 4th Assessment Report:Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
Current global emissions = 38 billion metric tons/year
WATER IS ALSO A GREENHOUSE GAS:
TERMITES AND
COWS?
Cows, sheep, etc.
Figure 2-1: Global sources of methane
TYPES & DISTRIBUTION OF GREENHOUSE GASES
(Chlorofluorohydrocarbons)
C
(Methane)
TotalCO
CO22==76.7%
76.7%
Total
Reference: IPCC 4th Assessment Report:Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
Source: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory (y-axis units are teragrams of CO2 equivalent)
For the following graphs, please
note the BEGINNING year:
800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide Concentration
(Lüthi et al.; Tans; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Analysis of air bubbles trapped in an Antarctic ice core extending back 800,000 years.
Graph based on:
National Academy of Science
Note the close correlation between
CO2 and global surface
temperature.
Note: While temperature may be going down, the trend is still UP!
Hadley CRU - University of East
Anglia Climate Research Unit
MSU – Michigan State University
This is a short-term map, which does not show the long-term trend.
Graph based on:
National Academy of Science
However, nine of the world’s hottest
years have occurred this decade.
IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING:
4th Assessment Report of International Panel on Climate Change
(2007)
Estimates of 2100:
Predictions:
"Bergie Seltzer"
Melting water streams from iceberg calved from Ilulissat Kangerlua Glacier in Disko Bay, Greenland. When an iceberg
melts, it makes a fizzing sound called "Bergie Seltzer." This sound is made when compressed air bubbles trapped in
the iceberg pop.
February 12, 1993
February 21, 2000
Himalayan Glacier
Friday, 4 December 2009
Nepal cabinet holds meeting on Mount Everest
Nepalese ministers have held the world's highest cabinet
meeting on Mount Everest, to raise awareness of the effects of
climate change.
Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park, Montana
An iceberg reaches Macquarie Island, 930 miles southeast of
Tasmania, Australia, on Nov. 16
NASA & Chinese Study of ice cores from 5
Tibetan Plateau glaciers:
•Melting faster than global warming would
suggest
•Found rapid increases in black soot since 1990’s
•Mostly from air pollution over Asia, especially
India
•Soot-darkened snow and glaciers absorb
sunlight- increased melting
Black Soot and the Survival of Tibetan Glaciers
Posted December 15, 2009
NASA Earth Observatory
CAUSES OF RISING
SEA LEVELS:
Loading Image...
Open boats on Shennong Stream, in the Three Gorges off the
Yangtze River in China
:
Melting of Glaciers and Ice Sheets + Thermal Expansion
Table 1. Estimated potential maximum
sea-level rise from the total melting of
present-day glaciers.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/factsheet/fs50-98/]
LOCATION
POTENTIAL SEA-LEVEL RISE (m)
East Antarctic ice
sheet………………………………………..
64.8
West Antarctic ice
sheet…………………………………………
8.06
Antarctic Peninsula……………………
0.46
Greenland…………………………………
6.55
All other ice caps, ice fields,
and valley
glaciers……………………………………..
TOTAL
0.45
80.32
What would happen to Houston if the glaciers and ice of Greenland melted?
New Orleans
Houston
Miami
U.S.G.S. – One meter rise in sea levels would affect 25% of of
U.S. population.
What would happen to London?
To Amsterdam?
To Calais?
RESULTS OF RISING SEAS:
A woman speaks on her phone in flood waters during a period of seasonal high water in Venice November 30, 2009. The water level
in the canal city rose to 130 cm (4 feet) above normal, according to the monitoring institute.
Date: 14-Dec-09
Country: INDONESIA
Author: REUTERS
Photo: Yusuf Ahmad
A Woman Prepares A Meal Inside Her House Which Is Surrounded By Sea Water As A Result Of Rising Sea Levels In Una Una, Indonesia
The loss of permafrost and protective sea ice may force
villages like Alaska's Shismaref to relocate.
Aerial photo of Male Atoll, Republic of
Maldives. Atoll will vanish with 2ºC temperature
rise. NG Photo
DESERTIFICATION
Northwestern Kenya's drought has brought conflict between pastoralists
A villager walks through a partially dried reservoir in Yingtan, Jiangxi province October 29, 2009.
Photo: Reuters
The Milluni reservoir has receded as glaciers that provide some of
Bolivia's water and electricity have melted and disappeared.
•Prospect of military intervention to deal with
effects of
A farmer stands next to the burnt Amazon forest next to the city of Careiro da Varzea
November 28, 2009.
IPCC FINDINGS:
•Stabilizing CO2 concentrations from 445 to 535 ppm
(Environmentalists want 350 ppm) and
•Limiting temperature from 2º to 3ºC
  Reduce annual growth rate of GDP by
0.12%
•Cost of war in Iraq in 2008 = $12
Billion/month
Highlights of the Copenhagen Climate Accord
.
Next meeting: November, 2010
CONCLUSIONS:
1. Global warming is happening.
2. The correlation between global temperature
and carbon dioxide concentration is very
high.
Graph based on:
National Academy of Science
3. Even if we reduce greenhouse gases
dramatically, it will take hundreds of years
to recover.
4. What kind of world are we leaving to our
children and grandchildren?
What is your choice?