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PERSONAL POSITIONING FOR TOMORROW'S CHALLENGES 9/4/2010 @ Taylor's University College Steven C.M. Wong Assistant Director-General Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia [email protected] Easy but not painless: Easy money, fiscal spending-led recovery; wealth illusion on a grand scale; value unhinged; speculation & risk management industry • • • • • Liberalisation globalisation financialisation Inflated asset & commodity prices Awesome pay packets for the few Massive resource misallocation – capital hoarding Shifting of liabilities to the next (your) generation Fractious times: Convergence of geoeconomic and geopolitical concerns; highly advanced economies also most highly indebted; trade, investment, currency battles; rise of economic nationalism. • • • • • End of the public debt road approaches Strong arming to appease domestic voters Unemployment – employment trends are worrying Shift of centre of economic gravity to Asia Decoupling myth - someone kill this please -5.0%> -1.0%~-<5.0% HUN, ITA Output Growth - 2010 -1.0%~+<1.0% AUT, CHE, DEU, ESP, FRA, NLD, SWE, TWN, +1.0%~+<5.0% +5.0%> AUS, CAN, GBR, KOR, MEX, MYS, JPN, PHL, RUS, SGP, THA, USA BRA,CHN, IDN, IND, VNM Deflation <-3.0%> 3.0%~<-1.0% Inflation -1.0%~<+1.0% AUT, CHE, DEU, ESP, JPN, MYS, NLD, TWN 10.0%> DEU, ESP, FRA, HUN, ITA, USA 7.5%~<10% BRA, CAN, GBR, IDN, PHL, RUS, SWE -10%> GBR, ESP, JPN, USA -10.0%~<-5% FRA, HUN, IND, ITA, NDL, MYS, RUS, THA, VNM 0%~25% AUS, CHN, RUS 25%~50% CHE, BRA, ESP, IDN, KOR, MEX, SWE, THA, TWN Unemployment 5.0%~<7.5% AUS, AUT, CHE, IND, JPN, MEX, NDL, TWN Fiscal deficit (% GDP) -5%~<0% AUS, AUT, BRA, CAN, CHE, CHN, DEU, IDN, KOR, MEX, PHL, SWE, TWN Public debt (% GDP) 50%~75% AUT, IND, MYS, NDL, PHL, VNM +1.0%~+<3.0% AUS,CAN, CHN, FRA, GBR, HUN, ITA, SGP, SWE, THA, USA +3.0%> BRA, IDN, IND, KOR, MEX, PHL, RUS, VNM 2.5%~<5.0% CHN, KOR, MYS, SGP, VNM <2.5% 0%~+<5% SGP +5%~+10% 75%~100% CAN, DEU, FRA, GBR, HUN, SGP, USA, 100%> ITA, JPN Strategic maneuvering: Business concentration through global M&A. Splitting up of value chain. Technology race replacing conventional arms race. • • • • • Control of capital vs. capital controls Investment decisions vs. industry leadership Management across borders (i.e. diversity) Multiple skill sets required Organization & project management VALUES, BELIEFS & ATTITUDES COGNITIVE ABILITIES KNOWLEDGE & SKILLS CULTURAL & SOCIAL CAPITAL What is important in life? What is not? What’s there to be passionate about? Why do things happen? Why do things not happen? How to change outcomes? What are essential knowledge and skill sets? What are useful? How to practice and perfect? How to fit into companies & communities? How to find allies & partners? How to be resonate? • Principles vs. pragmatism • Liberal vs . conservative • Proactive vs. passive • Strengths • Weaknesses • Opportunities • Threats • Strategies • Problem-solving • Efficiency • Effectiveness • Value • Solutions • Real worth • • • • Action Cooperation Feedback Information • Norms • Habits • Cause-and-effect • Morality & ethics • Sacrifice • Cooperation • Sharing • Participation • Competition • Competition • Goal-setting • Achievement • Values, belief & attitudes are ‘given’; form or be formed; • • • • set/reset anchors; invest wisely Opinions count but are not all that count; age of ‘instant’ experts; instead question & reflect Excellent communication expected but not enough; talk is getting cheaper by the day Mental agility must take its place alongside values, ability & knowledge; otherwise ‘misguided’ missiles result Predigested and prepackaged knowledge is creating parrot & ‘cut-and-paste’ generation’; be creative • Look for opportunities to practice & perfect your • • • • crafts; take shortcuts at your own cost Remember cultural capital: language, norms, etc. Key word is resonate Don’t underestimate power of the Internet but don’t overestimate it ; blogs, tribes, Facebook, etc. Be practical; identify mentors, enlist co-conspirators; network allies & partners, resonate Any endeavour or change will encounter resistance & apathy; master cooperation; expect & engage • 1. | Conduct a time inventory/audit; understand self first; discover conflicting goals; time traps • 2. | Devise personal information acquisition & reflection strategies (and not just text books & blogs either) • 3. | Get interested, get energised, get informed, get out there • 4. | Take consistent & concerted personal & group action