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Global Climate Change:
The Evidence, Challenges and Our Options
Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Distinguished University Professor, Geography
Director, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University
Ice Core Paleoclimate Research Group
Lonnie Thompson
Postdoctoral Researchers:
Henry Brecher
Emilie Beaudon
Mary Davis
Stacy Porter
Paolo Gabrielli
Roxana Sierra
Don Kenny
Graduate Student:
Ping-Nan Lin
Donaldi Permana
Bruce Plateau,Victor Zagorodnov
Crawford Point,
Dasuopu,
Antarctic Peninsula
Greenland
Himalayas
Funding provided by:
NSF: Paleoclimate and Polar Programs
NASA: Earth Akron,
Sciences
(Glaciology)
Akron Roundtable,
Ohio,
March 19, 2015
NOAA: Paleoclimatology
Gary Comer Foundation
Global Climate Change:
The Evidence, Challenges and Our Options
Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Distinguished University Professor, Geography
Director, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University
Ice Core Paleoclimate Research Group
Lonnie Thompson
Henry Brecher
Mary Davis
Paolo Gabrielli
Don Kenny
Ping-Nan Lin
Victor Zagorodnov
Postdoctoral Researchers:
Emilie Beaudon
Stacy Porter
Roxana Sierra
Graduate Student:
Donaldi Permana
Funding provided by:
NSF: Paleoclimate and Polar Programs
NASA: Earth Sciences (Glaciology)
NOAA: Paleoclimatology
Gary Comer Foundation
Key Points
Earth’s climate is changing - the world is warming – that debate is over!
Weather and climate are very different.
Changes in the climate system are driven by both natural and anthropogenic
factors.
Global Climate Change (GCC) involves many changes - not just temperature.
(precipitation, sea level, ocean acidification, ecosystems, glaciers are melting)
Human activities that release carbon dioxide (CO2) & other Greenhouse Gases,
as well as aerosols (particles), into Earth’s atmosphere are the
dominant cause of warming of our planet since the 1950s.
Recent scientific assessments highlight the role of human activities.
The world is challenged by its growing need for energy – what are our options?
How we choose to power our planet going forward and how rapidly we make the
necessary changes will determine our collective future.
Our Earth is warming!
Environmental conditions are changing!
Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index
2005, 2010, 2014
warmest years on record
0.95°C
1.70°F
Year A.D.
Relative to the 1951 – 1980 mean
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Our Earth is warming!
Environmental conditions are changing!
Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index
1900 – 2014
Air Temperature
Changes
2005,
2010, 2014
0.93 ºC
warmest years on record
0.95°C
1.70°F
Year A.D.
Relative to the 1951 – 1980 mean
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Climate and Weather are Quite Different!
Climate is what you expect
Weather is what you get
Akron: 29.4 oF for Feb (1986-2015) avg
Akron: 16.0 oF for Feb 2015
The dog walker is the climate
The dog is the weather
February 2015 – Earth’s second warmest February
Land & Ocean temperature departures for February 2015
Base period: 1981 ‐ 2010
7
Quelccaya
Ice Cap,
Cap, Peru
Peru
Quelccaya Ice
1977
2002
Photo: Lonnie G Thompson
Quelccaya
Quelccaya Ice
Ice Cap,
Cap, Peru
Peru
2002
Photo: Lonnie G Thompson
Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru
Photo: Lonnie G. Thompson
Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru
Photo: Lonnie G. Thompson
2010
2014
2012
2010
Source: NOAA and Scripps
1100
IPCC GHG Emission Scenarios for 2100 AD
800
900
700
CO2 remains in the
atmosphere for decades
to millennia
600
Dome C
EPICA Dome C ice core extends back
through eight glacial and interglacial
stages (800,000 years) recording changes
in the composition of Earth's atmosphere
500
Today
1100
IPCC GHG Emission Scenarios for 2100 AD
800
900
700
CO2 remains in the
atmosphere for decades
to millennia
600
500
Today
The fraction of CO2 remaining in the air, after emission by fossil fuel
burning, declines rapidly at first, but 1/3 remains in the air after a century
and 1/5 after a millennium (Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, 2287-2312, 2007).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Huber and Knutti, Nature Geoscience, 2012
So what actions will give us the Best Possible Scenario …………………….
1) Put a price on carbon (tax or cap)
2) Use efficiency standards, incentives & restrictions on harmful practices
3) Fund research & development of new technologies - speed the transition
4) Prepare to adapt - anticipatory adaptation is cheapest
(esp. for expensive infrastructure); international aid may be needed
“It is cheaper to prepare than to repair”
5) Geoengineering for impacts not mitigated or adapted to
(but proceed with caution)
5) Be prepared to adjust the response; review and amend the plan
How the world chooses to supply the power it needs will determine
in large measure Earth’s future climate.
This is a global problem and will require global-scale solutions.
Our options include:
Mitigation (increased efficiencies and fuel switching)
Adaptation (taking measures to reduce the adverse impacts)
Suffering is possible if these approaches are insufficient
Our greatest challenges of the 21st Century will be
(1) learning how to get along with each other and
(2) learning how to get along with our Planet.
These two challenges deal with human behavior and
are closely related!
Earth
For Global Climate Change --- Nature is the Time Keeper!