Download Tunisia`s image as an ideaL hoLiday desti

country focus | Tunisia
Tunisia | country focus
Light at
the end
of the
tunnel?
Tunisia’s image as an
ideal holiday destination has now been
stained by the rise of
religious extremism
widely covered by
international
newspapers
The rise of Salafist-jihadist domestic activities is
threatening Tunisia’s future.
O
By Charlotte Le Masson
n Sunday 31 March, suspected
Tunisian Salafists launched
an arson attack against a
new beachside development
in Hergla, on the west coast
of Tunisia. Salafist movements have previously attacked the entertainment sector targeting art galleries,
museum and cinema since the 2011 revolution but tourism had never been targeted
until this attack. Hergla is a not only a
popular tourist destination, known for its
beaches and sunny weather, but is also a
stronghold for Salafists. Tunisia’s image as
an ideal holiday destination has now been
40 CEO MIDDLE EAST May 2013
stained by the rise of religious extremism
widely covered by international newspapers, and Tunisia’s main tourist sites
and beaches are now empty of tourists. If
this trend persists, the Tunisian economy
will be badly affected as the government
plans to leverage the tourism sector to spur
economic recovery.
Tunisia is a favoured tourist destination for Europeans, especially for
French tourists looking for warm weather
during the winter. Tourism was badly hit
by the revolution as it fell by 50 percent
between January 2010 and January
2012 and the government is desperately
April 2013 CEO MIDDLE EAST 41
country focus | Tunisia
The reality
of Tunisia’s
political
and security
instability
has severely
affected the
tourism sector
Unrest Tunisia is facing an emerging threat coming from domestic Salafi-Jihadist activities.
trying to boost the sector as it represented 7.3 percent of its GDP in 2012. The
government has been trying to encourage
a recovery of its economy by expanding the
tourism industry as it employed 217,000
people, representing 6.6 percent of total
employment in 2012.
Tunisia is keen to expand the sector in
order to create jobs and respond to the
unemployment crisis, given that one in
five Tunisians are employed by the tourism
industry. For example, the new beachside
development in Hergla was supposed to
attract tourists and create employment
opportunities for the citizens of Hergla.
This beachside development was one of
the new projects being created alongside a
new promotional tourism campaign
launched in April with the slogan “Live
in Tunisia Freely”.
This new campaign seeks to promote
Tunisia’s cultural heritage as well as health
tourism such as water spa treatments and
plans to attract 6.8 million tourists in 2013
and 10 million in 2016.
Despite the government’s effort to
encourage tourism and promote a secure
country, the reality of Tunisia’s political
and security instability has severely
affected the sector. International agencies
recently predicted a recovery in the sector
Sector in a downturn One in five Tunisians are employed by the tourism industry.
42 CEO MIDDLE EAST May 2013
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country focus | Tunisia
Tunisia | country focus
7.3%
Tourism sector’s contribution to the
Tunisian GDP in 2012.
527,467
The number of tourists who visited
Tunisia in the January/February
period of this year.
50%
Fall in Tunisia’s tourism numbers
from January 2010 to January 2012.
$1.87bn
Foreign direct investment into Tunisia
in 2012.
during summer 2013, but with recent
events and media coverage depicting
a violent image of Tunisia, the tourist
season has had a slow start. The number
of tourists in the January/February period
in 2010 was 657,607; in 2011 it was 361,824;
in 2012 it was 566,161 and in 2013 it was
527,467. The decrease in the number of
visitors between 2012 and 2013 is by 6.8
percent and by 19.8 percent between 2013
and 2010. This fall in visitors between 2010
and 2013 can be explained by the threat of
instability throughout Tunisia.
Managing director of Strategic Analysis
political risk consultancy, Ruth Lux,
comments: “Tunisia’s credit rating has
been gradually downgraded by international ratings agencies as a consequence
of Tunisia’s political instability raising
costs for Tunisia to secure financing on
international markets which it requires
to reduce its budget deficit.
“Tourism offset over a third of Tunisia’s 2.83 billion dinars ($1.76bn) trade
deficit in the third quarter of 2012. Nonetheless foreign direct investment (FDI)
increased from 1.62 billion dinars ($1bn)
in 2011 to 3.00 billion dinars ($1.87bn) in
2012 suggesting that, provided political
stability increases, Tunisia is unlikely to
44 CEO MIDDLE EAST May 2013
Suffering If the instability persists, the
Tunisian economy will be badly affected
as the government plans to leverage the
tourism sector to spur economic recovery.
Vital sector Tunisia plans to attract 6.8 million tourists in 2013 and 10 million in 2016.
Leader Tunisian prime minister Ali Laarayedh.
see a decrease in FDI.”
Since 2011 political and security instability has manifested in a number of high
profile incidents. On 14 September 2012,
the US embassy in Tunis was attacked by
hundreds of protesters after the release of a
controversial film on Prophet Mohammad.
As a result two people died and 29 were
injured.
The government blamed Islamic
Salafists and particularly the most prominent jihadist organisation in Tunisia,
Ansar Al Sharia. The attack was broadcasted around the world, projecting a
negative image of Tunisia in the Western
world and increased the perceived threat
of a rising extremist movement.
The escalation of general insecurity
was exacerbated by the assassination of
the government opposition leader. On 6
February 2013, Chokri Belaid was assassinated in front of his house which deepened
tensions within the country. The secular
party blamed the ruling Ennahda party
for the assassination, while Ennahda has
actively denied any involvement. Belaid’s
assassination provoked civil unrest
throughout the country and was followed
by the resignation of prime minister
Hamadi Jebali on 19 February 2013 further
eroding political instability in Tunisia.
While the attack on the US embassy
and the assassination of the opposition
leader Belaid had a negative effect on the
tourism industry, Tunisia is facing an
emerging threat coming from domestic
Salafi-Jihadist activities aggravated by the
return of Tunisian fighters from Syria.
On 27 March, the government announced
strict measures to prevent Tunisians from
travelling to Syria as an alarming 30-40
percent of all foreign fighters in Syria are
reportedly Tunisian. Young recruits go
to Syria in order to fight jihad against the
Assad government, they then return to
Tunisia to either find funding in order to go
back to Syria or come back with increased
radical ideologies and fighting capability
which they might use domestically. The
attack on the beachside development in
Hergla was a concrete manifestation of the
impact of the rise in religious extremism
on the tourism industry. Not only has the
image of Tunisia been damaged abroad,
but violent actions have been taken against
a tourist site.
Unlike its neighbouring countries,
Tunisia has never suffered from a sustained
terrorist campaign and recent domestic
violence spreading across Tunisia has
been blamed on groups such as Ansar Al
Sharia Tunisia (AST). The government has
been trying to tackle religious extremism
by launching a series of counter-jihadist
activities throughout the country. Operations have been launched especially in
poorer areas in the west and the south of
Tunisia, where extremist groups such as
AST and other Salafi groups are gaining
support from the population. These
measures by the government have been
perceived by AST as anti-Salafi-Jihadist.
This could provoke a further escalation
in violent confrontation. For example, on
26 March Abu Iyad Al Tunisi, a founder
of AST, issued a warning via social media
towards the prime minister Ali Laarayedh,
threatening to overthrow his government.
These measures taken by the government
will not only create further political instability but might also exacerbate the rise in
violent actions such as the arson attack in
Hergla. This threat is not only affecting
the country’s security but also the tourism
sector as this overall instability will deter
tourists impacting Tunisia’s tourism
industry and, in turn, will have a direct
impact on the national economy. There will
be an increased likelihood of social unrest
and possibility for greater instability,
although as yet it is unclear the extent to
which returning fighters from Syria play
a part in enhancing the downward spiral.
Charlotte Le Masson is a researcher
at Strategic Analysis
May 2013 CEO MIDDLE EAST 45
country focus | Tunisia
“Tunisia’s
economy is
hampered
despite the
rebound in the
tourism and
mining sectors”
Tunisia cuts 2013
growth forecast
Tunisia’s Islamist-led government has cut
its economic growth forecast for this year to
four percent, down from a previous forecast
of 4.5 percent due to events at home and in
Europe, its finance minister said.
Tunisia plunged into political crisis
on 6 February when the assassination of
secular opposition politician Chokri Belaid
ignited the biggest street protests since the
overthrow of strongman Zine Al Abidine
Ben Ali two years ago.
An uprising in January 2011 forced
Abidine Ben Ali to leave Tunisia after 23
years in power, sparking the Arab Spring
revolts that have swept the Middle East.
“Because of some reasons, including
the crisis in Europe and crisis at home we
decided to reduce expectations for growth
in 2013 by 0.5 percent to four percent,
compared with 4.5 percent expected,”
Elyess Fakhfakh told reporters.
Tunisia said recently it plans to cut the
budget deficit for this year to 5.1 percent
of gross domestic product compared with
the previous target of 5.9 percent.
Inflation jumped to 6.5 percent in March,
the highest rate in at least five years,
reflecting high food prices, and the economy
is struggling due to the slowdown in the
eurozone, the main market for Tunisia’s
exports and the source of most of its tourists.
The International Monetary Fund is
very close to reaching an agreement with
Tunisia on providing a precautionary
credit line worth $1.75bn, Amine Mati,
head of an IMF mission to Tunisia, said.
46 CEO MIDDLE EAST May 2013
Fallen Opposition leader Chokri Belaid’s assassination provoked civil unrest throughout Tunisia.
Tunisia’s tourism:
The impact of political and security instability
There has been a worrying
rise in extremism and
Salafist-jihadist movements
since 2011 and reportedly
30-40 percent of foreign
fighters in Syria are
Tunisians; their return
will undoubtedly impact
security.
Tunisia’s tourism industry constitutes:
7.3% of
its GDP
Security concerns have caused
tourism to fall by...
...and creates employment for:
217,000
people work
in the sector
50%
Between
january
2010 and
2012
1 in 5
People
Government projects to attract visitors:
6.8
Million
in 2013
&
10
Million
in 2016
6.8% in the
january/
February period
in 2013 and 2012
and by 19.8%
between 2013
and 2010