Download Brains - Minnesota Futurists

Eric Hand March19.3m, 2010
- Brains: a few key facts & concepts
- How facts & ideas about the brain
may predict the Singularity
- Project Blue Brain: Supporting evidence
& milestone for the Singularity?
Fun facts (er, plausible guesses) about the brain
- Computational capacity: Kurzweil guesses
about 20 petaflops (20 X 1015 operations / second).
IBM has said they will have a computer of about that
power operational in 2012.
- Number of neurons ~= 100 billion
- Total length of neural fibers ~= 1 million km.
- Connections among these = at least trillions
Brain Development
The human genome has only 30 - 100 million bytes of info,
in compressed form, less than some existing computer
programs,
but gives rise to an adult brain that would need at least
terabytes or petabytes to fully describe.
This is because brain development happens by a
probabilistic fractal process.
A few simple rules for cell division, migration, and
connection act huge numbers of times, with some
randomness each time.
Mathematical metaphors are the Mandelbrot set,
and cellular automata, as demonstrated by Stephen Wolfram.
Example of a Mandelbrot set
http://www.miqel.com/images_1/miqel_data/fractal_images/cool_organix4_whoa.jpg
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Neurons showing similar branching patterns
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The neocortex is arranged into 6 distinct cell layers
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Main computational units in the neocortex:
millions of neocortical columns,
cylindrical volumes 0.5 mm wide by 2 mm high,
each containing about 10,000 neurons
connected in an intricate way.
Representation
of a
mammalian
neocortical
column
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Representation of a mammalian neocortical column
Until the last 10-20 years, predictions
about AI and robots surpassing
general human intelligence (strong
AI) had been repeatedly overoptimistic.
E.g.: In 1977, Marvin Minsky,
A founding father of modern AI,
said that general artificial intelligence
at or above human level (aka strong AI)
would be achieved within a generation.
Ray Kurzweil, in his 2001 essay
"The Law of Accelerating Returns",
extends Moore's Law to describe an
exponential growth of technological progress
in general.
He gives numerous graphs to support his
claims.
E.g:
Cost o fcalculations /sec
from 1900 - 2002
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commo
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He expects these trends to continue for decades.
Why?
- Progress in more technologies is becoming
driven by advances in IT
- There is accelerating synergistic feedback
among the rapidly growing fields of
Genetics, Nanotech, and Robotics
He predicts that this will lead to
superhuman general intelligence
by about 2029.
He defines this as it the ability to
pass the Turing Test.
Extrapolating Growth of Computing to Strong AI
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"The Singularity" is a phrase borrowed from
the astrophysics of black holes.
As used by Vernor Vinge and Raymond
Kurzweil, it refers to the idea that accelerating
technology will lead to artificial intelligence that
will exceed human intelligence about
the year 2030.
As superhuman AI permeates civilization by
about 2045, The results on the other side of
the "event horizon" will become unpredictable.
Singularity video
The Singularity By Ray Kurzweil at the TED
conf. 2009 (23:41)
brain info starts at about 17 min.
http://sciencestage.com/v/562/ray-kurzweil-.html
Project Blue Brain
IBM is now in the second year of a ten year collaboration
with a Swiss University to simulate the computational
functionalities of the human neocortex.
They claim to have simulated a mouse neocortial column.
To the extent this is accurate, it is huge progress,
And tends to support Kurzweil's schedule for the arrival of
strong AI and the Singularity.
Remember Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating returns.
Halfway thru the Human Genome Project, only ~1% of the
Genome had been decoded, and many called that a failure.
IBM says they are doing project Blue Brain to advance treatment
of brain disorders, including senility.
But they surely appreciate the possibility of huge military AI
contracts, as increasing aversion to casualties in Western
countries has led to the a strategy of "Our technology against
their sons."
E.g.: Robart 3 –The warfighters associate
http://www.spawar.navy.mil/robots/movies/RobartIIITheWarfightersAssociate.wmv
Project Blue Brain videos
The Brain According to Henry Markram - video/
http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/
Bluebrain | Year One – video documentary
http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentaryto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/
I have not found recent technical info on Blue Brain,
possibly because they don't want to give away
anything useful to potential competitors.
More Resources
Ray Kurzweil's AI/Singularity website:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/index.html?flash=1
Why We Can Be Confident of Turing Test Capability
Within a Quarter By Ray Kurzweil
The advent of strong AI (exceeding human intelligence)
is the most important transformation this century will see,
and it will happen within 25 years, says Ray Kurzweil,
who presented this paper at
The Dartmouth Artificial Intelligence Conference:
The next 50 years (AI@50) on July 14, 2006
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?m=1
The Singularity Is Near (2005)
- The current "bible" of technology futurics
The Singularity Hub
http://singularityhub.com/
Blue Brain Project homepage
http://bluebrain.epfl.ch/page18699.html
Working Brain Model - MIT Techology Review
http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/19767/
Books by Marvin Minsky
The Society of Mind (1988)
The Emotion Machine (2007)
Finite and Infinite Machines (1967)
Perceptrons - Expanded Edition(1987)
http://www.amazon.com/Marvin-Minsky/e/B000APALSQ/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_pop_