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Policies for Mitigating Climate
Change
Workshop on Asian Climate Change
and Variability
22 July 2011
Dilip R. Ahuja
National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore
Sequence of Presentation
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Analogy between Public Health and Climate Change
Complementarity between Mitigation and Adaptation
Types of Mitigation Options
Types of Policy Instruments Available
What features make it a difficult problem to address?
Concluding Remarks
Public Health & Climate Change: Analogy
Public Health
Climate Change
Etiology
Causes
(external, self-inflicted or iatrogenic)
(Natural or Anthropogenic)
Susceptibility
Vulnerability
Prevention
Mitigation
Treatment /
Managing a Chronic Condition
Adaptation
Adaptation and Mitigation can be complementary,
substitutable or independent of each other
Four Broad Sets of Mitigation Options,
each intervening at a later stage
1. Reduce Consumption by life style changes or demand side
measures;
2. Reduce Emissions by alternate ways of generating electricity
or producing liquid fuels; (largely renewable energy options)
3. End-of-pipe removal of greenhouse gases and long-term
sequestration;
4. Global geo-engineering schemes (in case the first three are
inadequate)
Announced Recent Targets
1. GOI Voluntary Commitment: Reduce Energy Intensity of the Indian Economy by 2025% by 2020; plus targets in National Missions
2. IPCC Special Report on Renewables: Median Contributions of Renewables could
increase from 13% of Primary Energy Supply in 2008 to 17% in 2030 to 27% in
2050.
3. Global Energy Assessment (Vienna Energy Forum): By 2030,

Ensure universal access to modern energy services,

Increase energy efficiency by reducing energy intensity by 40%,

Increase share of Renewables to 30%.
Half of the National Missions in India’s Climate Action
Plan deal with Mitigation
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Solar Energy
Enhanced Energy Efficiency (Industrial)
Sustainable Habitat (Urban)
o Energy Efficiency (Residential and Commercial)
o Municipal Solid Wastes
o Public Transport
Water
Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem
Green India
Sustainable Agriculture, and
Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change
Proposed Geo-Engineering Solutions
1.
2.
3.
4.
Fertilizing Southern Oceans with Iron Filings (Woods Hole)
Pumping Compressed CO2 to ocean depths (Takashi
Ohsumi)
Releasing reflective metallic particles in the upper
atmosphere to reduce in-coming sun-light (Teller)
Releasing sulphate aerosols in the upper atmosphere
(Crutzen)
Problems with geo-engineering solutions
1.
2.
3.
4.
Using poorly understood large experiments to undo the
effects of an on-going poorly understood large experiment;
Address only some adverse effects (such as warming) but
not others (such as ocean acidification).
Absence of any global body to approve or regulate such
experiments; international agreements unlikely.
IPCC conclusion: They remain largely speculative, unproven,
with the risk of unproven side-effects, and with no
published reliable cost estimates.
Types of Policy Instruments
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Research and Development
Subsidies and Incentives
Voluntary Agreements
Tradable Permits
Taxes and Charges
Regulations and Standards
Information Instruments
Why is it such a difficult problem to address?
1. Humankind has evolved to perceive and respond to immediate threats; we are not so
pro-active at responding to slowly unfolding threats.
2. “Stock” problem rather than a “flow” problem, concentrations cumulative result of past
emissions;
3. Truly a global problem requiring a global solution (free riders and victims);
4. Changing perception of developing countries from aid recipients to competitors;
5. Involves trade-offs within and across generations, and across species;
6. Asymmetry in distribution of costs incurred in the present and benefits being in future
poses difficulties for public officials tuned to single election cycles;
7. Democratically elected governments are held accountable for economic performance
but not for adverse climatic impacts;
8. Our public structures require a proof of need before they feel empowered to act. They
can not respond to unsubstantiated warnings (based on probabilities);
9. A rich and influential lobby benefits from status quo and opposes action.
Characterization of the Debate as a
Wrestling Match
“Admittedly, the contest over global warming is
a challenge for the referee because it's a tagteam match, a real free-for-all. In one corner
of the ring are Science and Reason. In the
other corner: Poisonous Polluters and Rightwing Ideologues.”
Al Gore
Climate of Denial
Rolling Stone, June 22, 2011
Both Sides Invoke Reason
“For every problematic statistic a theoretically
rational reply can be made with a reassuring
statistic.”
John Ralston Saul, 2004
On Equilibrium
Four Walls and Eight Windows, New York
Comparison with Ozone Depletion
Ozone Depletion
Climate Change
Smoking Gun, Ozone hole over the
Antarctic
No one clinching evidence
Few Chemicals involved; substitutes
available
Ubiquitous; involves changes in the
broader economy
Small Incremental Costs and Different
Times
Substantial costs involved, world is
different today than in the late eighties
Concluding Remarks
• It seems to me to be an intractable problem
• What options do we have?
Thank You for your attention