Download A Review of Climate Change and Fossil Fuel Consumption

A Review of Climate
Change and Fossil
Fuel Consumption
Earth Temperature Anomaly
Left click below for video
“Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm the world - if there
were none, the world would be some 30C colder, and there would
be no human life. But while some concentration of atmospheric
greenhouse gases is essential to life, too high a level could spell
disaster. “
“And by burning fossil fuels we are on a path to more than double
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 above pre-industrial levels. This will
produce significant global warming with highly unpredictable regional
climatic effects that could severely harm human welfare...”
“African countries emitting on average less than 2 tonne per capita
per year can hardly be expected to make cuts if countries like Britain
or Australia, with emissions 5 to 15 times higher, are unwilling to
lead. The good news is our high emissions mean that there are numerous
opportunities to cut emissions at low cost.”
Adair Turner, chairman of the UK Committee on Climate Change, and
a former director-general of the Confederation of British Industry.
Current CO2 Levels 394 ppm
Scientist predict we are on track for 800 ppm by the end of the century
CO2 Graph at Mauna Loa in Hawaii
The periodicity is due to the
influence of the northern
hemisphere forests’ winter
dormancy
There is arguably an exponential growth trend line
Variations on Earth’s Surface Temperature
IPCC
South West
South West
Australia contributes 1.4% of global man-made
greenhouse emissions.
Yes, but... CO2 per capita is more important
AUSTRALIA
Australia has only 0.3% of the Earth’s population, but
1.4% of its emissions
UK/GERMANY/
JAPAN
CHINA
Some Climate Change Deniers Blame
Solar Activity for Global Warming
TEMP
CO2
SOLAR
ACTIVITY
http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/the-sun-is-the-problem.html
Some Climate Change Deniers Blame
Volcanoes for the Increase in CO2
How can this be checked?
The Source of Atmospheric CO2
The composition of the carbon dioxide is
typical of biological carbon from fossil fuels
rather than volcanic activity. Only 1% has
volcanic origin.
Droughts and Floods
Predictions of global warming modelling:
–Rainfall will continue to become
concentrated in increasingly heavy but
less frequent events.
–The incidence, intensity, and duration of
both floods and drought will increase.
Both of these appear to be happening
NASA Projected Arctic Ice Retreat
NASA
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/voulgarakis_01/fig1.jpg
BP and Climate Change
BP, the largest oil company in the UK and one of the largest in the
world, has this to say about global warming:
“There is an increasing consensus that climate
change is linked to the consumption of carbon
based fuels and that action is required now to
avoid further increases in carbon emissions as
the global demand for energy increases.”
BP and Climate Change
“Climate change is a major global challenge – one
that will require the efforts of governments,
industry and individuals...”
“...We support the use of a carbon price – one that
applies economy-wide and treats all carbon
equally, whether it comes out of an industrial
smokestack or a car tailpipe. Carbon pricing will
make energy efficiency and conservation more
attractive, and make lower-carbon fuels like
natural gas, nuclear power and renewables more
cost competitive within the energy mix...”
Other Oil Company Views
Shell Oil says:
“Shell shares the widespread concern that the emission of
greenhouse gases from human activities is leading to
changes in the global climate.”
http://environment.about.com/od/faqglobalwarming/f/gw_faq_hoax.htm
Caltex Oil says:
“...Caltex is committed to addressing the serious issue of
climate change by working with governments to develop
effective policies to reduce emissions.”
“Caltex accepts the science behind global warming...”
BHP Billiton Company View
In a speech before the Australian-British Chamber of
Commerce, BHP Billiton CEO Marius Kloppers said BHP
"acknowledges that the mainstream science is correct,
and that we need to stabilize - and eventually reduce the carbon concentration in the atmosphere.“
Scientific American December 21, 2010
BHP Billiton Company View
While BHP prefers an international climate framework,
he said, the more likely path will eventually harmonize
local policies aimed at cutting emissions into a unified
global action. "We believe that such a global initiative
will eventually come," he told his audience.
Kloppers urged Australia to impose a high enough cost
on carbon pollution to drive investment in energy
alternatives and technology. He urged the power sector
to start weaning itself from coal. "Failure to do so will
place us at a competitive disadvantage in a future where
carbon is priced globally," he said.
Scientific American December 21, 2010
Emissions Trading Scheme and Industry
“[As managers] we are paid to understand and
manage risk. And we think [global warming] is a
significant risk and we need to mitigate it. We are
also paid to understand opportunities and we
think a shift to a low-carbon economy will create
opportunities. And the most efficient way of
reducing emissions ... is establishing a price on
carbon. And the most efficient way to do that is
cap and trade.”
Confederation of British Industry
Why we need a carbon tax, by the Coalition’s
environment spokesman, the Hon. Greg Hunt:
In 1990 Greg Hunt co-authored a university thesis entitled
A Tax to Make the Polluter Pay.
His conclusion:
“…Ultimately it is by harnessing the natural economic
forces which drive society that the pollution tax offers
us an opportunity to exert greater control over our
environment…”
Bjorn Lomborg
Professor Lomborg, an author and academic at Copenhagen Business School, is calling for a tax
on carbon emissions to fund international efforts to boost wind, wave, solar and nuclear
power.
Money is also needed to cover the research and development costs of innovative projects to
counter rising temperatures, he argues...
He writes: "Investing $100bn annually would mean that we could essentially resolve the
climate change problem by the end of this century..."
"The point I've always been making is it's not the end of the world. That's why we should be
measuring up to what everybody else says, which is we should be spending our money well."
[Professor] Lomborg’s unequivocal warning about the potentially disastrous consequences of
the world’s reliance on fossil fuels will provide a welcome boost for environmentalists at a
time when the science behind global warming is coming under increasing scrutiny.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/7972383/Climate-sceptic-Bjorn-Lomborg-now-believesglobal-warming-is-one-of-worlds-greatest-threats.html
Proposed Carbon Pricing Mechanism
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Proposed Carbon Pricing Mechanism
Creating the Incentive to Use Clean Energy
As an instance of what is currently happening with regard to CO2 emissions, Victorian
brown coal has between 48 to 70% water content. This means that between 480 kg and
700 kg of water has to be evaporated before the fuel can be burnt. This translates to a net
calorific value of around 10 MJ/kg, as against around 35 MJ/kg for black coal. The brown
coal is very cheap because it is in seams of around 100 m thick, and usually has only around
twenty metres of overburden. It is cheap, dirty and has high CO2 emissions. There is every
incentive to use it and nothing currently will deter its use.
To enhance the economics of alternative energy, arguably a penalty has to apply to
energy systems which emit CO2. If this is instituted, many alternative energy systems
which are now marginal will become viable.
Examples include:
•Oil mallee plantations supplying biofuel to power stations in Western Australia
•The Solar Updraft tower
•The Atmospheric Vortex Engine
•Tidal Power
•Geothermal Energy
•Wave Power
•Wind Power
Let’s have a look at some of them.
An Example - Geothermal Energy
It’s been estimated that Australia has enough geothermal energy to supply its energy
needs for 4600 years. That is arguably conservative.
Geothermal Energy
An Example - The Solar Updraft Tower
Two towers are being built in Arizona, with the first scheduled to be connected to the grid in 2015
An Example - The Solar Updraft Tower
An Example - The Solar Updraft Tower part 1
Left click below for video
An Example - The Solar Updraft Tower part 2
Left click below for video
The Solar Updraft Tower is being built in Arizona
by an Australian company which had originally
proposed to build it in Australia. They got no
encouragement from Australian governments. The
Arizona government gave them access to cheap
desert lands.
Another Australian initiative has gone offshore
due to the lack of government action.
European Offshore Wind Farm
An Example - Offshore Wind Farm Development
UK Offshore Developments
Total 26
GW total
An Example – Underwater Tidal Power Turbines
Tidal Intensity Map
“AN AUSTRALIAN company, using technology that a young
Queensland engineer designed, is expected this week to announce a
string of international contracts.”
“Atlantis Resources Corporation has developed turbines that can
generate electricity from the sea's movement. It has begun trials at
San Remo in Victoria.”
“The tidal farm will have capacity to power a million homes.”
“ ‘This is a story of a group of young Australians doing wonderful
things on a global scale,’ Atlantis chief executive Timothy Cornelius
said.”
“He said the deep-water Solon turbine that 28-year-old Dr John Keir
had designed was considered the world's most efficient underwater
generator.”
This is being implemented in Scotland’s Pentland Firth by
2013: Another Australian initiative has gone offshore due
to the lack of government action.
Prosperity and Sustainability can go hand in hand
In Britain there is a general appreciation that a low-carbon economy
can be a prosperous one, and that the costs of global inaction on
climate change would be great. There is therefore cross-party
consensus behind the stretching target of an 80 per cent cut in
Britain's greenhouse gas emission below 1990 levels by 2050. This
was made a legal commitment of the British government by the
Climate Change Act of 2008.
The 80 per cent cut would bring Britain's emissions down from
around 14 tonnes per person in 1990 to around 2 tonnes per person
by mid-century. This compares with a current Australian level of 27
tonnes per person. Already Britain is about 25 per cent below the
1990 level, and the Conservative/Liberal coalition government has
recently agreed a path that will further reduce emissions by about
50 per cent by 2025.
Adair Turner is chairman of the UK Committee on Climate Change, and a former directorgeneral of the Confederation of British Industry.
Mallee for Fuel
By 2020, Virgin Blue wants 5 per cent of its fuel to be sourced from
biofuel and the airline is backing eucalyptus mallee from Western
Australia to provide it...
[Virgin Australia]... said there were farmers in Western Australia who
had been growing trees for 15 years to combat soil salinity and erosion
problems. Farmers would harvest the trees by cutting them to ground
level, then waiting for them to regrow. The wood is chipped to fine
particles, which are heated without oxygen, breaking the particles down
into solids, liquids and gas. The liquid is used as fuel and should be in
Virgin's tanks by 2014. The solid and gaseous components have other
industrial applications.
White said it would take 2 million hectares of eucalyptus trees to fuel
Australia's domestic air travel, and so far there are just 12,000
hectares growing.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/sun-shines-on-allsources-not-just-the-power-of-one-20111001-1l2ti.html#ixzz1ZxnI3RH9
China’s Renewable
Energy Plan
Loy Yang Open Cut Mine
VICTORIAN GEOTHERMAL
The geothermal reserves coincide with the largest deposits of brown coal
PHOTO CREDIT: Loy Yang Power Station
The brown coal mine at the Loy Yang Power Station. These coal dredges
are the size of a building that is several storeys high! The largest open-cut
coal mine in the world is nearby. And these are both dwarfed by the
brown coal beds that have not yet been tapped into!
[Scientists are exploring the option] of using a different carrier to bring
the [geothermal] heat energy up to the surface, because there is not a
lot of water available in the region, and what little there is would be
expensive and could corrode the pipes. One possible carrier is liquid
carbon dioxide, from carbon dioxide ‘captured’ from the coal-fired power
stations in the region. They also are investigating how they can improve its
ability to ‘carry’ the heat energy using certain kinds of nanoparticles
(particles about the size of molecules). Research on this new technology
has already been carried out in places like the United States.
Harnessing renewable energy is not easy, and the
cost is significant.
On the other hand there is a strong argument that
it must be done:
“[Global warming is] perhaps the most
consequential problem ever confronted by
Mankind. Like it or not, we have been handed
Phaeton’s reins, and we will have to learn how to
control climate if we are to avoid his fate.”
Prof. Kerry Emanuel, Head of Department of Atmospheric Physics MIT
END