Download Project title: Analyzing Somali Piracy through Computer Simulation

Applicants:
1. Arvind Verma, Assoc Prof, Criminal Justice; [email protected], 812-855-0220
2. Suresh Marru, Staff- Computer Science; [email protected], 812-855-4081
Project title: Analyzing Somali Piracy through Computer Simulation
DESCRIPTION OF INTENDED WORK
Computational criminology is emerging as a new inter-disciplinary field that
applies computer science and mathematical methods to the study of criminological
problems. The complexity of human behavior, social interactions and law and society
parameters present extraordinary challenges to model criminal behavior and determine
the best possible means to control it. Although, some form of mathematics, largely
statistics has been used by criminologists for their data analysis but the applications have
been affected by the limitations of crime data. There is dispute about the nature of crime
and official data is considered biased and shaped by organizational factors. Furthermore,
the dark figure of crime [unreported crime] is believed to be much larger than official
records. All these restrict ways of conducting quantitative data analysis in criminology.
Nevertheless, in recent years developments in the new field of computational
criminology are promising innovative techniques of analyzing criminal behavior and
exploring solutions to deal with them (Eck and Liu 2008). Theories of Environmental
Criminology (Brantingham & Brantingham 1991), Routine Activity Approach (Cohen &
Felson 1979) and Rational Choice (Clarke & Felson 1993) have helped developed
methods of geographical profiling that utilize the concept of distance decay to track
offender movement in a given space. It is well known, for example that offenders make a
rational choice in weighing the risks of an expected reward before embarking on their act.
Moreover, they tend to operate in known areas where they have the knowledge of
opportunities and escape routes.
Using this model a technique known as geographical profiling analyzes the areas
where crimes are committed and works backwards to create probability spaces from
where the offender is likely to operate. Geographical profiling has been successfully
applied in serial crimes and has emerged as a powerful tool for the investigation and
prevention of crime (Rossmo 1999). This project seeks to apply these criminological
concepts to the study of Somali pirates who are active in the sea lanes around the Gulf of
Aden and the Arabian Sea.
Although piracy around Somalia has been reported since the early 1990s it has
only been in the last 2-3 years that it has taken a menacing dimension and brought world
attention to the problem. The Gulf of Aden is one of the busiest sea routes providing the
pirates a lucrative opportunity to target commercial ships and collect ransom from their
owners. Reportedly, $150 million has been collected as booty in the last year alone.
Although, patrolling by navies of the US, India and some other nations has commenced it
remains ineffective due to the vast expanse of water and thousands of unescorted ships
providing easy targets. The pirates have also begun moving south and targeting the ships
sailing on the eastern coast of Africa, thus expanding their areas of operations. This threat
is so serious that United Nations is contemplating a peacekeeping sea navy for the area.
However, the unsettled conditions in Somalia provide the pirates not only hiding places
but also strong bases to plan and execute their operations.
The modus operandi of the pirates is simple- use a fast speed boat to roam the
seas and target a commercial ship using small arms and grenade launchers. Since all
crews are unarmed they are unable to offer any resistance to the forcible take over of their
ship and fall an easy prey. The pirates are then able to hold them as hostages, demand
ransom money and escape without fear of serious confrontation. It has only been an
occasional intervention by some navy ship that has thwarted these plans. Otherwise, the
pirates have successfully collected ransom from a large number of merchant ships.
The Somali piracy crimes have several dimensions that form the modus operandi
of the act. The pirates operate from fishing villages dotted near the sea coast with
facilities to launch small and big boats. The boats are another factor. Earlier they were
using small motor propelled fishing boats scouting few miles off the shore. These skiffs
were too slow so pirates began capturing trawlers and small freighters for use as mother
ships to venture deep into the sea. These larger boats can drag a couple of skiffs and
house 10-15 pirates on board. These mother ships lie low waiting for merchant ships to
come close when skiffs are launched to capture the targets. The large numbers of ships
using these seas for the shortest route to the Suez Canal provide easy targets. The
merchants ships travel fast but cannot overrun the smaller faster skiffs used by the
pirates. Moreover, the pirates use GPS and radars to locate and track the movement of
merchant ships and attack at opportune moments.
This project aims to model the criminal activities and movement of the pirates
using the concepts of Environmental Criminology and the above mentioned parameters
forming the modus operandi of the pirates. The criminological theory not only provides
the context but also means to test the validity of the simulated model. The data for the
project will come from open sources [such as UNOSAT_Piracy_Gulf-Aden; IMB Piracy
Reporting Center 2009] that provide elaborate details of the pirate attacks in the past few
years. The number of incidents and geographical coordinates available from these sources
provide sufficient information to test a computational system that simulates the incidents.
We propose to begin with a grid representing the latitude and longitude coordinates of the
affected region. One part of the grid will mark the fishing villages scattered along the
coastline and the other the ‘corridor’ where ship movement takes place. The parameters
of speed for the merchant ship and the skiff boats, the fuel capacity and unobtrusive
prowling by the ‘mother ship’ that determines the range of operations before returning to
the base will provide the variables to model the movement pattern of the pirate boats and
merchant ships and identify the probability spaces most likely to be affected by the
pirates. The model will also estimate the time period in which the merchant ship can
summon help from the patrolling Navy boats or outrun the pirates. The spots where the
pirate boats interact with the merchant ship will be counted as ‘Hits’ and the results of
some 10000 runs will help identify the hot spots of attacks and probability spaces of
vulnerable areas. We will add the factor of Navy patrols to ‘deter’ these attacks within a
varying radius based upon their random movement in the grid. That is, if the Navy
patrols are within a set distance the pirate attack will be deterred. This simulation will be
presented on a visual graphic that will display the originating base, the movement of
pirate boats and the merchant ships and finally the ‘hits’ where the two will interact in the
absence of Navy patrols. The mean coordinates of hot spots [high probability areas] of
these hits will be collected in a database which will be compared to the real mean data
coordinates using a simple Goodness of Fit statistics. This simulation will be a self
improving iterative model that will vary different variables of base locations, speed and
range of operations, random movement of the mother ship and Navy patrol boats to
obtain the best possible fit to the real data.
WHY THIS MATTERS?
The project models the crime of piracy off the Somali coast which is a current ongoing problem for the world. Thus, not only does it address a serious criminal activity but
also provides tests of several hypotheses that can aid the investigators to locate the pirate
bases and take preventive measures. Furthermore, this will provide the foundation for
applying similar simulation models to other criminal activities like terrorism in the
mountains of Afghanistan and illegal migration across the Mexican border and even
predatory crimes in urban environment. Where ever geography is an important dimension
for criminal activities similar simulated modeling will be able to provide insight into the
movement of offenders as also ways of investigating and preventing these crimes.
PROPOSED COLLABORATION
This project is collaboration between Dr Arvind Verma of the Department of
Criminal Justice, Suresh Marru, [staff] and graduate students from the Departments of
Computer Science & Criminal Justice. The direct benefit of this project will be an
innovative simulation model to analyze piracy around Somalia and develop its preventive
measures. An expected outcome is to develop a prototype that can help in obtaining a
larger grant from the National Institute of Justice as well as the National Science
Foundation and other agencies for a comprehensive study of piracy around Somalia and
other places.
However, a major impact of the project will be to set the foundation of
Computational Criminology at IU. A long term partnership between the School of
Informatics and the Department of Criminology will help utilize computer science
concepts such as algorithms, data mining, data structures and software development to
understand the crime phenomenon and evolve methods of controlling it. A variety of
projects concerned with epidemiological studies of crime, disease, economic activities
and political mobilization are likely to evolve from such simulation models of complex
social processes. The project has the potential of bringing together criminologists,
computer scientists, geographers and mathematicians to create a new research enterprise
inquiring into the complex social problems using a variety of computational and
mathematical methods.
FUTURE FUNDING PROSPECTS
A developed prototype of this project and similar ones based on computational
criminology are likely to attract the interests of the National Institute of Justice [NIJ] and
the National Science Foundation which provides funds under the subject of Human
Social Dynamics Program. Significantly, the NIJ has announced forthcoming
solicitations [see http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/funding/forthcoming.htm] for:
Criminal Justice Technology Partnerships
Building and Enhancing Researcher-Practitioner/Policymaker Partnerships
The above project will fit in nicely with these themes and likely to find support once
some preliminary work has been done.
References
Brantingham, PJ and Brantingham, PL 1991. Environmental Criminology Prospect
Heights, IL: Waveland Press.
Brantingham, PJ and Brantingham, PL 2006. Computational Modeling and Simulation of
Spatial and Temporal Crime Pattern in Urban Environments, paper presented at
the Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis Conference, Chilliwack, BC,
Canada, August.
Clarke, RV and M. Felson (Eds.) 1993. Routine Activity and Rational Choice: Advances
in Criminological Theory, Vol 5 New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books.
Eck, John and Liu, Lin (Eds.) 2008. Artificial Crime Analysis Systems: Using Computer
Simulations and Geographic Information Systems Hershey: Information Science
Reference.
International Maritime Bureau 2009 <http://www.icc-ccs.org>
Rossmo, Kim 1999. Geographical Profiling Boca Raton, Fla.: CRC Press.