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Climate Variability and Change
and their Health Effects
in the Caribbean
Joan L. Aron, Ph.D.
Vulnerability Associated with
Climate Variability and Climate Change in
Central America and the Caribbean
IAI Summer Institute Oct 26 - Nov 8, 2003
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Alliance of Small Island States
“Perhaps when the human health costs of climate
change are appreciated and added to the material
costs and environmental damages faced by small
island States a new spirit of cooperation and
partnership will emerge.”
His Excellency Tuiloma Neroni Slade
Ambassador
of Samoa to the United Nations Chairman, Alliance
of Small Island States
Barbados, May 21, 2002
Alliance of Small Island States
 AOSIS:
Coalition of small island and lowlying coastal countries
• Africa, Caribbean, Indian Ocean,
Mediterranean, Pacific, South China Sea
 Issues of environment and development
 Vulnerability to the adverse effects of
global climate change
SEA LEVEL RISE
CHANGES IN RAINFALL REGIMES
Small Island Developing States
Factors increasing vulnerability
 Small physical size
 Surrounded by large expanses of ocean
 Relative isolation
 Limited natural resources
 Growing populations
 Exposure to damaging natural disasters
 Low economic diversification
 Limited funds, human resources, skills
Global Climate Change
Sea level rise
 Displacement of coastal communities
 Disturbance of agricultural activity
 Coastal erosion, beach loss, decline in
tourism
 Intrusion of sea water into freshwater
aquifers
Multiple Time Scales
Sea level rise
Sea level rise (long time scale)
Increased vulnerability to storm surges, coastal flooding
Storm event (short time scale)
Global Climate Change
Threat of sea level rise
Hurricane Lenny
Eastern Caribbean
Global Climate Change
Changes in rainfall regimes
 Prospect of more frequent droughts and
floods in tropical ocean regions in which
small island states are located
 Water supply is a major concern
 Experience of small island states is a
microcosm of the global picture
 International Year of Freshwater 2003
Water Resources
Global issue
International Year of Freshwater 2003
Multiple Time Scales
Changes in rainfall regimes
 The El Niño/Southern Oscillation ( ENSO )
affects global weather patterns, cycling
every two to seven years
 Rainfall regimes shift
• Floods or droughts
 Responses to ENSO help to reduce adverse
impacts of climate on health
ENSO 1997-1998
Drought in Pacific Islands
ENSO 1997-1998
Drought in Pacific Islands
 More skin disease in FSM, Marshalls
 Poor air quality from wildfires in Guam,
Pohnpei, Yap, Palau
 Relief food shipments
 Information campaign reduced incidence
of diarrheal disease in Pohnpei hospital
 Water storage and conservation
 Many diseases under study ( dengue, ... )
Vector-borne Diseases
Dengue
Vector-borne Diseases
Dengue
 The Caribbean region has experienced a
marked increase in the incidence of
dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in
the past decade (Caribbean Epidemiology Centre CAREC)
 Assessments of the impact of climate
change on the health sector point to a
potential increase in the incidence of
dengue (Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean)
Vector-borne Diseases
Dengue
 Major factors driving the spread of dengue
include population growth, rapid
urbanization, lack of effective mosquito
control and movement of new dengue virus
strains between countries. The global
climate system is itself complex.
Scientists are researching the role of
climate and the best ways to use climate
data in dengue control.
Vector-borne Diseases
Dengue
 Regional research project to devise a
climate-based early warning system to
predict and mitigate outbreaks of dengue
fever in the Caribbean
• Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change
[AIACC]
• University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona, Jamaica
• Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC]
• IAI-supported Collaborative Research Network on Diagnostics
and Prediction of Climate Variability and Human Health Impacts
in the Tropical Americas
Vector-borne Diseases
Dengue
 Another project applies Hadley climate
model version 3 to project a modest
temperature rise in the eastern Caribbean
and a reduction in rainfall
 Statistical and neural net early warning
system for dengue on the island of Java
Vector-borne Diseases
Malaria
Vector-borne Diseases
Malaria
 Two study sites in Colombia as part of the
IAI-supported Collaborative Research
Network on climate variability and health
 Link between environmental temperature
and the number of malaria cases
 Study of a Bioclimatological Monitoring
System in Institute of Meteorology in Cuba
Other Climate and Health Issues
 Urban heat islands (San Juan, Puerto Rico]
 17-fold increase in asthma since 1973;
19.8% prevalence currently [Barbados]
 Algal blooms in the sea [Adapting to Climate
Change in the Caribbean]
 Nutritional deficiencies due to decreased
food production [Adapting to Climate Change in the
Caribbean]
Climate and Food Security in
Central America
 PAHO is developing a project on climate
and food security in Central America
 PAHO’s Nutrition Institute of Central
America and Panama (INCAP) in Guatemala
Cuba, 1895-1898
Epidemics in war & peace
 Wartime can increase crowding, contact,
migration, vulnerability to disease
• Spanish military ordered rural civilians to
towns and halted transportation of foodstuffs
 Different vulnerabilities to different
diseases in different groups
• Spanish soldiers lacked immunity to yellow
fever
• Cuban civilians lacked immunity to smallpox
Regional Interactions
African dust in the Caribbean
Regional Interactions
African dust in the Caribbean
 African dust is transported in the
atmosphere across the Atlantic Ocean to
the Caribbean.
 Drought conditions in Africa have led to
increasing amounts of dust over the past
few decades.
 Ongoing studies probe the effects of dust
on human health, coral reefs, agriculture
and livestock.
Regional Interactions
River outflows from S. America
Regional Interactions
River outflows from S. America
 Massive kills of reef fish from Trinidad &
Tobago to Barbados - July to October 1999
 Freshwater bacterium Streptococcus iniae
isolated from dead and dying fish
 High rainfall in northern S. America in 1999
 Large quantities of fresh water from
Amazon and Orinoco river basins
 Lower salinities, higher temperatures,
unusual reverse currents in the Caribbean
Public Health Response
“Ministries of Health should play a central role in
this response -- but should also remember that
finding enduring solutions will depend on intersectoral communication and convergence.”
Professor Tony McMichael
Director, National Centre of Epidemiology and
Population Health
Australian National University
Barbados, May 21, 2002
Inter-Agency Network
on Climate and Human Health
 World Health Organization
 World Meteorological Organization
 United Nations Environment Programme
and their regional offices
Inter-Agency Network
Workshops in small island states
 Pacific Ocean: Apia, Samoa, 2000
• WHO Regional Office for the Western Pacific
• WMO Subregional Office for the South Pacific
 Caribbean Sea: St. Philip, Barbados, 2002
• Pan American Health Organization
• Office of Caribbean Program Coordination
• UNEP Regional Office for Latin Amer. & Carib.
 Indian Ocean: Maldives, 2003 ( December )
• WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia
Principal Partners in
Caribbean Meeting on Barbados
Barbados Ministries
Health; Physical Development & Environment
Caribbean Organizations
CPACC; CEHI; CAREC; CIMH
Canadian Donors
Health; Environment
U.S. Donors
EPA;
NOAA;
NASA
Next Steps in Climate and Health
 Recommendations from workshop
participants for enhancing awareness,
using data, and strengthening institutions
 Coordination of sharing of information and
networking of regional organizations
 Maldives workshop (Dec. 2003)
 Guidelines for national vulnerability and
adaptation assessments of health impacts
of climate change
Climate Change and Human
Health: Risks and Responses
 WHO Publication in 2003 edited by Tony
McMichael et al.
 Interagency Network on Climate and
Human Health (WHO, WMO, UNEP]
 Seeks to describe the context and process
of global climate change, its actual or likely
impacts on health, and how human
societies and their governments should
respond
Caribbean Community Climate
Change Centre
 Approved by CARICOM Heads of Government
in 2002 and effectively starting in 2003
 Host territory is Belize
 Mandated to act as an executing agency for
regional climate change programs and
projects
 Advisory mechanism on climate change
policy to the CARICOM Secretariat and its
member countries
Mesoamerican and Caribbean
Geospatial Alliance (MACGA)
 MACGA infrastructure starting in 2003
 Improve access and distribution of existing
and new spatial datasets
 Supported by the U.S. Agency for
International Development
 Technical leadership from the U.S.
Geological Survey EROS Data Center
Sunset in Barbados