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Jan….need new cover
Alternative Fuels:
Carbon-to-Liquids
Donald L. Paul
Vice President and
Chief Technology Officer
Chevron Corporation
© 2006 Chevron
The Fuel Supply System:
Scale, Time, and Capital
Carbon-to-Liquids: Synthetic Fuels
Molecular Transformation
Summary Thoughts
© 2006 Chevron
2
The Fuel Supply System
„ Capital intensive
„ Technology intensive
„ Highly-integrated systems
„ Very long-lived assets
„ Infrastructure characteristics
„ Intersects global economics and politics
© 2006 Chevron
3
Scale
Global oil volume:
Infrastructure:
Capital
All upfront:
• World’s largest
supply chain
•
Takes decades to
develop at scale
•
~ $10+/BBL
reserves
• 40,000 gal/sec
•
Lasts generations
to centuries
•
$20,000+/daily BBL
for fuel
manufacturing
• 0.5 gal for every
human, every day
• 250 Billion gals of
fuel in transit in
the U.S. alone
© 2006 Chevron
Time
Giant oil fields:
•
Typically 20 years
from discovery to
full production
$ Trillions of
investment needed
over next 30 years
4
“Unconventional” Resources
„ XHO - Extra Heavy Oil
„ Bitumin
„ Coal
„ “Non-traditional”
natural gas
„ Biomass
„ Oil Shale
© 2006 Chevron
5
Fossil Reserves and Resources
1,060 Shale Oil
3,700 Coal
450 Heavy Oil
1,100 Natural Gas Reserves
1,050 Oil Reserves
7,360 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent Reserves & Resource
© 2006 Chevron
Source: EIA and IEA as at 1/1/2006
6
Synthetic Fuels from Natural Gas
„ Fuels entering premium
markets
„ Commercial plants under
construction
„ Active R&D to reduce
capital costs
„ Connected to world-scale
gas resources
„ Distributed manufacturing
„ Molecular transformation
© 2006 Chevron
7
Synthetic Oil and Fuel from
XHO, Bitumin, Coal, and Shale Oil
SAGD Process
Steam Injection
Oil Production
„ Distributed manufacturing
„ Large-scale bitumin
development in Alberta
„ Shale oil RD&D leases in
Colorado
„ Hydrogen production at
scale
„ Molecular transformation
„ Energy and carbon
management
© 2006 Chevron
8
Biofuel Growth Drivers
Industrial-scale
Infrastructure
© 2006 Chevron
2nd Generation
Technology
Large, concentrated
supplies of feedstock
9
Biomass-to-Fuel
Bio-fuels
© 2006 Chevron
Bio-products
Bio-processing
„
Feedstock supply development
„
Molecular transformation
„
Scalable, distributed manufacturing
„
Fuel market and infrastructure evolution
10
Molecular Transformation
„ Unconventional
resources require
significant molecular
“readjustment”
„ New engine technologies
will likely require fuel
evolution
„ Fuel synthesis provides
the opportunity to create
superior products
„ Significant and growing
molecular science base
© 2006 Chevron
11
Deployment of New Fuel Technology
at Scale
~ 10 years
Bench
Top
Pilot
Plant
Experimental
Plant
World-scale
Commercial
Plant
$
Millions
$ 10’s
Millions
$ 100’s
Millions
$ Billions
<.01 B/D
~ 1 B/D
~1000 B/D
~100,000 B/D
Illustrative example
© 2006 Chevron
12
Summary Thoughts
„ Enormous resource bases
© 2006 Chevron
13
Summary Thoughts
„ Enormous resource bases
„ Synthetic fuel manufacturing
© 2006 Chevron
14
Summary Thoughts
„ Enormous resource bases
„ Synthetic fuel manufacturing
„ Molecular transformation
© 2006 Chevron
15
Summary Thoughts
„ Enormous resource bases
„ Synthetic fuel manufacturing
„ Molecular transformation
„ Infrastructure development
© 2006 Chevron
16
Summary Thoughts
„ Enormous resource bases
„ Synthetic fuel manufacturing
„ Molecular transformation
„ Infrastructure development
„ Carbon management
© 2006 Chevron
17
Summary Thoughts
„ Enormous resource bases
„ Synthetic fuel manufacturing
„ Molecular transformation
„ Infrastructure development
„ Carbon management
„ Sustainable business models
© 2006 Chevron
18
Questions ?
© 2006 Chevron
19
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