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Probability and Expected Value Game: Chance to win “$100” Setup: Take 10 cards (9 red and 1 black) and lay them face down on a table. Object: 10 players each take a single turn, in sequence, and try to pick the black (winning) card. If they do, they win the pot and the game is over. If they don’t, then the next person gets a chance to pick. Explain the rules of the game, but do not discuss probability or expected value—these will be discussed after the game or discovered by the players during the game. Playing the game: Solicit 10 “volunteers” to play the game. You could choose these 10 or you could have them “bid” with “money” for a chance to play. Now, determine the order in which they will draw—this is another chance to have them “bid” for the chance to go first, second, etc. I would expect some desire to go first since a winning card basically stops the game. Once this is set, play the game. Discussion. Once the game is complete, discuss why they made the decisions (bidding to play or bidding when to draw) they did. What is the probability of winning for each player? Does the order in which the go really make a difference? What is the expected value of playing the game? How much should they bid to play or bid to go first?