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Supporting Information S1 Derivation of the temperature-dependent parameters Biting rate a Sandflies are assumed to be active at temperatures between 14 and 28 C° [1, 2]. The biting rate (i.e. the reciprocal of the interval between the blood meals) is thought to be no higher then 0.16 (corresponding to a six-day interval between blood meals) . For this study, we used the algorithm a = (T-14)/100+0.03 for all pixels with a temperature of 14 C° or higher; pixels with a lower temperature have a value of zero for the biting rate. The biting rate in the non-zero pixels ranges from 0.03 to 0.12, corresponding to intervals between blood meals of 8 to 33 days. Duration of the EIP The development of the parasites is faster at higher temperatures, hence the duration of the EIP is shorter. The EIP of L. infantum has been reported to last from a few (3-7) days  up to 20 days . We chose the algorithm EIP = 100/(T-5), so that the duration of the EIP ranges from 5.5 days (at 23.1 C°) via 10 days (at 15 C°) to 20 days (at 10 C°) in the study area. Mortality rate (µsf) The survival of Phlebotomus species is restricted to a temperature range of 5-30 C° [2, 6]. The life span of female sandflies is approximately 2 weeks to 2 months, and it is known to be longer at lower temperatures and higher humidity [6, 7]. Based on this notion, we approximated the relationship between the daily mortality of adult sandflies and temperature by µsf = 0.0035(T-5). References 1. Rioux JA, Golvan YJ. (1969) Épidémiologie des leishmanioses dans le sud de la France. Paris: Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale. 223 p. 2. Casimiro E, Calheiros J, Santos FD, Kovats S. (2006) National assessment of human health effects of climate change in Portugal: Approach and key findings. Environ Health Perspect 114 (12): 1950-6. 3. Killick-Kendrick R, Killick-Kendrick M. (1999) Biology of sand fly vectors of Mediterranean canine leishmaniasis. In canine leishmaniasis: An update. Intern Canine Leishmaniasis Forum: 26-31. 4. Sacks DL, Perkins PV. (1985) Development of infective stage leishmania promastigotes within phlebotomine sand flies. Am J Trop Med Hyg 34 (3): 456-459. Available: http://www.ajtmh.org/cgi/content/abstract/34/3/456 via the Internet. 5. Desjeux P. (2004) Leishmaniasis: Current situation and new perspectives. Comparative Immunology, Microbiology and Infectious Diseases 27 (5): 305-318. Available: (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6T5H-4CBDBN41/2/1d73e111d507be00d8299994dd8d5e96) via the Internet. 6. Rioux JA, Aboulker JP, Lanotte G, Killick-Kendrick R, Martini-Dumas A. (1985) Ecology of leishmaniasis in the south of France. 21. Influence of temperature on the development of Leishmania infantum Nicolle, 1908 in Phlebotomus ariasi Tonnoir, 1921. Experimental study. Ann Parasitol Hum Comp 60 (3): 221-9. 7. Killick-Kendrick R, Rioux JA. (2002) Mark-release-recapture of sand flies fed on leishmanial dogs: The natural life-cycle of Leishmania infantum in Phlebotomus ariasi. Parassitologia 44 (1-2): 67-71.