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Supporting Information S1
Derivation of the temperature-dependent parameters
Biting rate a
Sandflies are assumed to be active at temperatures between 14 and 28 C° [1, 2]. The biting rate
(i.e. the reciprocal of the interval between the blood meals) is thought to be no higher then 0.16
(corresponding to a six-day interval between blood meals) [3]. For this study, we used the
algorithm a = (T-14)/100+0.03 for all pixels with a temperature of 14 C° or higher; pixels with a
lower temperature have a value of zero for the biting rate. The biting rate in the non-zero pixels
ranges from 0.03 to 0.12, corresponding to intervals between blood meals of 8 to 33 days.
Duration of the EIP
The development of the parasites is faster at higher temperatures, hence the duration of the EIP is
shorter. The EIP of L. infantum has been reported to last from a few (3-7) days [4] up to 20 days
[5]. We chose the algorithm EIP = 100/(T-5), so that the duration of the EIP ranges from 5.5 days
(at 23.1 C°) via 10 days (at 15 C°) to 20 days (at 10 C°) in the study area.
Mortality rate (µsf)
The survival of Phlebotomus species is restricted to a temperature range of 5-30 C° [2, 6]. The
life span of female sandflies is approximately 2 weeks to 2 months, and it is known to be longer
at lower temperatures and higher humidity [6, 7]. Based on this notion, we approximated the
relationship between the daily mortality of adult sandflies and temperature by µsf = 0.0035(T-5).
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