Slide 1 Download

Transcript
GDP per capita - average annual
growth rates 1980-2013 (%)
Note: The average annual growth rate of Russian Federation is calculated between 1989 and 2013.
Source: ILO calculations based on World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Growth is not the whole story: high growth
does not guarantee social inclusion
 The Russia Federation, China and Brazil have made
significant progress in reducing working poverty
despite low growth rates.
 In terms of reducing working poverty, India and South
Africa made less progress.
 The share of working poor in total employment
continues to be high in India and still relatively high in
China and South Africa.
High growth does not guarantee inclusion
Relative change in working poor, total<US$2(PPP)
Relative
1991
2013 change
Brazil
11509.6
3238.7
-71.9%
China
558474.8 104811.9
-81.2%
India
272749.3 260589.2
-4.5%
Russian Federation
2088.0
91.5
-95.6%
South Africa
1846.0
1929.8
4.5%
Share of working poor in total employment US$2(PPP) (%)
1991
2000
2007
2013
Brazil
18.6
13.1
7.2
3.3
China
88.9
58.2
27.9
13.6
India
84.2
78.6
70.7
56.2
Russian Federation
3.1
4.6
0.2
0.1
South Africa
19.6
23.2
17.8
13.2
Source: ILO, GET Model
Growth and composition of the middle class
in BRICS countries, 2000-2020 (projected)
Note: Economic classes are defined by per capita per day consumption levels in
US$, 2011 PPP.
Source: ILO estimates (October 2015 update); ILO, World Employment and Social
Outlook: Trends, January 2016
Good news in the growth of the middle class

BRICS have been the drivers of the growing ‘global middle
class’ in recent years and that is projected to increase from
1.8 billion in 2009 to 3.2 billion by 2020.

This has been in part a reflection of high GDP growth but
the middle class is also a key factor driving growth through
consumption.

The middle class can also be a force for political stability
and democracy through its values of work, taxes, saving
and investment.

And it demands development of education, health care,
public services and social protection, which themselves
help drive development.
Ensuring middle class growth continues
 At the same time the middle class in the BRICS is vulnerable to falling
back into poverty, informal employment. In many cases they are just
above the moderate poverty line.
 The share of the middle class remains low in some BRICS (China and
India)
 Essential to address inequality through balanced and redistributive
growth
 Need to increase the share of labour and household income in GDP
 Extend access to quality education
 Ensure quality of public services
 Improve social protection systems
Gaps in capital formation remain large
Gross fixed capital formation per worker in the
non-agricultural sector (000s of USD at constant
prices/exchange rates)
18
16
14
 In per capita terms,
BRICS still have only a
fraction of capital
compared with highincome OECD
12
10
16.2
8
15.1
6
4
2
4.1
2.2
0
2000-2008
BRICS
2009-2013
High-income OECD members
 This partly reflects low
public capital stocks and
physical infrastructure
deficits
Despite slowing growth, it is essential to consider
the employment implications of austerity
Expected rise in unemployment levels in emerging
economies (baseline vs. spending cuts by
commodity exporters, millions of people)
7
6
Spending- cut
increase
5
2.0
4
3
0.9
Baseline
increase
2
1
3.8
2.4
0
2016
2017
 Fiscal balances of
some exporters are
being challenged by
falling/low
commodity prices
 Ill-conceived
expenditure cuts
could worsen the
employment outlook
Illustrative figures (not fully comparable)
on SMEs as providers of employment
SMEs and Employment Creation
SME share in
SME share in new
employment (%) job creation (%)
SME contribution
to GDP (%)
Brazil
56
75
56
China
82
75
56
40
n.a.
n.a.
22
22
55
India
75
Russia 49
S Africa 61
Note: Should only be used as approximation, data are not directly
comparable as some data sets do not include micro enterprises,
non employer firms, or informal enterprises
Source: ILO calculations based on different sources
Smaller Firms tend to lag in productivity growth:
annual labor productivity growth (%) by firm size
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Brazil
Russian F
India
China
South Af
-10
Small
Medium
Large
-15
Note: Annualized growth in labor productivity as sales divided by full-time permanent workers.
Annual labor productivity growth is the change in labor productivity reported in a fiscal year from a
previous period. All values for sales are converted to USD using exchange rate in corresponding fiscal
year of the survey. Sales are then deflated to 2009 using the USD deflator.
Source: World Bank Group Enterprise Survey Data. Data years: Brazil 2009, Russian Federation 2012,
India 2014, China 2012, South Africa 2007
BRICS avg.
ILO SCORE Program
Advanced manufacturing practices
High-performance HR practices
Worker safety
Higher
productivity
and better
working
conditions
in SMEs
SCORE Training Outreach: 750 SMEs = 200,000 workers
China
Manufacturing
Vietnam
Furniture manufacturing
Colombia
Manufacturing
Peru
Manufacturing
Agroprocessing
Indonesia
India
Manufacturing
South Africa
Tourism
Ghana
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Improving the quality of technical and vocational
education and training (TVET)
Enhancing the labour market relevance of skills development
Anticipation
of future skills
needs to
improve the
relevance of
training
Promotion of
workplace
learning to
facilitate
school-towork
transition of
youth
Social
dialogue and
involvement
of the private
sector in
designing and
delivering
training
programmes
Sustainable
financing
mechanisms
for TVET
Equal
opportunities
to access
quality
education,
vocational
training and
workplace
learning
Public employment services (PES) play vital roles in reducing
mismatch in labour supply and demand, including where
labour migration within or across countries is involved

Public employment services (PES) can be important actors
in connecting firms with trainers.

They can also improve job matching in cases of domestic
labour migration and improve labour intermediation,
including through activities such as pre-departure support
and skills recognition.

Good practice in labour mobility programmes can also
succeed across borders with coordination among PESs.

Russia has provided a good example of inter-regional
online job matching and India also has inter-state
coordination mechanisms.
Adequate social protection is a prerequisite for
quality employment and decent work
Basic income security is a human need and adequate
social protection for all is one of the explicit targets of
the SDGs.
But it is also economically important, to support
structural transformation of the economy by allowing
workers to move to higher productivity sectors,
locations and occupations.
 It also stabilizes aggregate demand during economic
downturns and acts as an automatic countercyclical
policy.
Few unemployed workers in BRICS countries have
income security while they search for a job
Share of unemployed receiving
unemployment benefits (%)
20
Percent of unemployed persons
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Brazil
(2010)
China
(2013)
India
(2008)
Russian Federation
(2014)
South Africa
(2013)
Note: Years indicate latest data available.
Source: ILO World Social Protection Report 2014/15; ILO Social Security Inquiry database for
Brazil, India, South Africa, the Statistical Yearbook for China and the Interstate statistical
committee of the Commonwealth for the Russian Federation.
Many older people in BRICS countries receive a
pension, but benefit levels are often very low
Share of older persons receiving an old-age pension
Percent of persons above statutory pension age
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Brazil
(2013)
Men
Total (contributory)
China
(2008)
India
(2012)
Russian Fed. (2011)
Women
Total (non-contributory)
Note: Years indicate latest data available.
Source: ILO World Social Protection Report 2014/15, Table B9.
South Africa
(2014)
Today’s working-age population has limited
participation in pension schemes
Percent of the working-age population
60%
Share of the working-age population
contributing to an old-age pension scheme
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Brazil
(2013)
China
(2013)
Men
India
(2012)
Women
Russian Federation
(2009)
South Africa
(2014)
Total
Note: Years indicate latest data available.
Source: World Social Protection Report 2014/15, updated based on labour force or household survey
data for Brazil, India, and South Africa; Statistical Yearbook and estimates based on CHIP microdata for
China; and administrative data from the ILO Social Security Inquiry and Interstate Committee of the
Commonwealth of Independent States for the Russian Federation.
GDP per capita and public social protection
expenditure per capita
(USD constant; 1995, 2000, 2005, 2011)
Note: Brazil data 2010 instead of 2011
Source: ILO social protection data based on IMF Government finances statistics; CEPALStat
and World Bank, World development indicators 2015.
Policy objectives
and required actions
 Extend social protection coverage towards universal coverage and build
nationally-defined social protection floors
 Improve the adequacy of social protection benefits to provide meaningful
protection for the population
 Strengthen coordination between employment policies and social
protection policies
 Exchange good practices and experiences in designing social protection
policies to foster transition from the informal to the formal economy